Watch out! This could be the real black swan taking SPX500 to 1600 in a few years!
Contrary to common beliefs, US shale is not gonna put oil to death, only to delay the inevitability of its rise ...
This is essentially a combination of my previous 2 ideas: 1. The original bearish idea (follow the blue line) here 2. The bullish idea that sees no major pullbacks
1. Green path: almost straight to another all time high and then drop. 2. Blue path: after a decent drop then back to all time high and then drop. 3. Red path: market has already seen the top. Mostly sideways and down from here.
This is yet another alternative path for SPX500. Crazy but possible. Below are my basic 3 scenarios:
Last nail in the coffin to the world economy...
All the leverage you need is here.
A Quick Drop to $270 Is Imminent, followed by yet another quick bounce and then drop...
We saw 2 fast crashes in less than 14 months so the odds of another one in the next few months is not that great.
This is essentially the same as my original idea posted on 1/21/2019 but in more detail. See below:
Base building will soon be complete. Will pop in the next 1-2 weeks.
This is very similar to the purple path in my last idea (see below) only the right shoulder around April-May is a little higher.
Both are plausible IMHO.
Likely range bound for a few more months.
Main catalyst: 1. a weakened economy and heavy debt load limit Fed's ability to tighten too much down the road. When things get really bad, QE might even be restarted 2. US-China trade war resolution could help the RMB and in turn lift gold
Let the roller coaster begin!