I have every expectation that the broader stock indexes are headed for significant losses this week. Many charts are pointing only down from here. The most bullish case, from a technical perspective, suggests at the very least that the markets will strongly correct. What's interesting about this is the apparent divergence between what the stock indices are...
The daily ES futures chart using Heikin Ashi candles with volatility stops continues to support the view that we are in a new downtrend. We do want to see the lows from June 15th taken out for further confirmation, but I believe that is all but confirmed at this point. There are too many bearish patterns on too many major stocks at this point to suggest that we...
Just a quick update on the popular meme stock BYND. I pointed out the ominous rising wedge that was forming a couple of weeks ago, and it has now broken. Look for this to correct, probably somewhat dramatically.
I took requests on Twitter the other day and this stock came up. When I at first looked at the recent price action, I didn't see much right away, but I gained some clarity when I backed up. Back out all the way to a monthly chart and you might confuse this stock with a rocket ship company, given the verticality of its price action. However, in the time scale...
I am not presently in a gold trade, but I am watching it out of interest, to see if its price falls when the markets do (as I expect them to), just as it did in February and March. My hypothesis is that the economy is attempting to deflate at the end of a very long credit cycle, and that that process was arrested by Fed intervention. What I see on the charts is...
Caveat: I am not an expert Elliottician, though I have studied it to a reasonable degree. I use it to get a sense of where things may stand in very long term pictures. And when it comes to Apple, it's a beautiful, textbook, large Elliott wave structure, fitting that the crown jewel of the stock market would reveal itself so neatly. On the monthly chart, a very...
The QQQ, much like the other major indices, has formed a rising wedge off the March lows. This one, however is uniquely special both by its size and by the fact that on this chart resides one of the greatest bearish divergences I know of. Four unique higher highs in price, each one coupled with a lower high on the RSI over a span of six months. That is frankly...
I pointed out this broadening formation a couple of weeks ago, and it is still in play. At the top of the range, Facebook's stock has hit three new subsequent highs, each one trying to breach the top of the megaphone, and each time falling back again. But with each attempt, it reaches a lower high on the RSI. This is a symptom of weakening price action. When...
This once titan of industry, this echo from the very origins of the modern era in American industrial might, Ford's chart is one of the most consistently sad looking affairs I know of. There is almost nothing here on which to take note other than the consistent bearish channel it has been in for seven years now. After falling through the bottom of that channel...
Earlier tonight I posted a long-term daily chart which I believe demonstrates that we are now in a new downtrend. That said, in the short-term, I still see what looks to be a bull flag. We may try to go and fill the recent cash gap from a couple of weeks ago (red arrow) before finally turning down again with any serious selling. I do not personally trade such...
Despite today's short covering rip into the close, the ES futures remain in a long-term negative configuration. Until the recent highs in the 3230 range are taken out, swing traders can maintain short positions from here. We remain faced with a bearish wedge having broken down with a new down trend so far intact, though bears will want to see a new lower low...
I identified this ginormous rising wedge on TSLA the other day. This morning, it finally broke down from it and is conducting a backtest as we speak. If that fails, I would expect significant selling.
SPY looks like it is forming a classic bear flag on the 15-minute chart. If we continue to consolidate like this into the close, we may expect a large gap down tomorrow.
If we are in a new downtrend, the recent moves to the upside may be merely correcting earlier moves down. A common corrective pattern is an ABC pattern where the first leg is steeper than the third leg. And that looks to be what is unfolding now. It appears we have completed the first and second moves and are in the midst of the third. A good target is the...
Though I have been expecting the markets to roll over once and for all, they simply may not be ready yet. The ES futures now appear to be in a descending consolidation pattern, forming a bull flag. We may be headed up.
If this is a valid bear flag forming, they often include an overshoot, much like the one we see here. Let's see if this finally starts to dump again.
After Sunday night futures opened, we have seen nothing but a fairly furious ramp ever since. Be that as it may, from a technical perspective, there are still signs of trouble (also see my recent post on the VIX). The volume was, as it often is on up days, weak. And from a structural view, we may be seeing a series of bear flag formations developing. Until we...
Despite another grind higher today in the major indexes, the moves were on weak volume, as has become the norm for most of the upside moves over the last few weeks. The VIX, which broke from both long-term and short-term bull flags, remains elevated above the recent, smaller bull flag. It is still in a position to take off to the upside.