entropycapital

entropycapital

New highs vs new lows still at relatively benign levels

entropycapital Updated 

CRB at all time lows - should be an allocation once dollar strength situation is resolved one way or the other.

entropycapital Updated 

MOS move above 17 may indicate a clean breakout move targeting 30 - interesting long play in Agricultural related equities

entropycapital Updated 

Levels of 248-250 are critical for a long term Ethereum breakout - watch this space ! Will the DeFi yield chasing avalanche translate to an ETH repricing ? You can check out and invest in my non custodial ETH TokenSet here : www.tokensets.com

entropycapital Updated 

EURUSD has been trading in relatively tight range - this range will be resolved as dollar direction after this crisis becomes clear. Expect 1.05-1.15 to be neutral with a break sub 1.05 indicating parity if not break sub 1. Trigger will be the situation in Italy and the support (or lack thereof) by the EU.

entropycapital Updated 

Gold - Silver ratio at 20 year highs - short gold vs long silver adding to risk as recovery horizon becomes clearer. Very long term chart here .

entropycapital Updated 

Given recent newsflow I wanted to look into Hang Seng HK equities index - feels like that the zone just below 22,000 is critical long term - a break below would be extremely bearish. Together with the general reliance on what is a rigged real estate market I think it is one of the most fragile indices out there.

entropycapital Updated 

Vodafone has kept if dividend unch giving it (for now) a high single digit div yield which is pretty decent in a zero rate world. The range 125-135p is critical for a breakout. Don't expect stellar returns given utility status and African exposure but a possible re-rating of the stock given post covid-19 realities is possible - one to watch.

entropycapital

A great way to play crude recovery is long CRAK - the oil refiner ETF vs short SPY (overall large caps). Refiners have better margins with low oil prices and looking at their margins is a good way to gauge the demand for physical. The ratio has broken 0.7 and I expect to see it at 0.9 or a 30% return as recovery gathers steam.

entropycapital Updated 

Lufthansa trading near long term base around 7 to 8 EUR. Expect a short term rebound after bailout is approved (as it will be) followed by a long and difficult recovery. Position small long if & holds. No miracles about to happen in this battered sector but lower competition going forward and higher fares plus lower fuel prices will help a lot. Flights seem...

entropycapital Updated 

Long Gold stocks HUI and short Financial XLF ratio close to 15 level breakout. Above and we are off to the races. Note the post 2008 crisis long term outperformance.

entropycapital

Wall Mart NYSE:WMT is making new all time highs - interesting to monitor the WMT / DIA ratio as a potential long term equity lows indicator. Close but still not there.

entropycapital Updated 

Crude has been making lower highs consistently since the 2008 crisis. Adding to that we have immediate demand collapse due to the virus but also long term move to renewables and greener sources of energy. The weekly chart has a long term bearish triangle pattern. Expect long term support sub 20 and price oscillations till 2021 within the wedge. Currently neutral...

entropycapital Updated 

Accumulate longs near the 0.12-0.15 level. ZRX powers a solid foundation of decentralised trading applications - will be bumpy but one of the better longs in this market.

entropycapital Updated 

The all time high on the VIX was reached on October 24, 2008 at 89.53. If you still have firepower and the risk tolerance equity vol is a sweet sell if you can get size bids. It will be bumpy but the theta at these levels will compensate.

entropycapital Updated 

SP500 long term log scale chart ( post 2008 crisis ). Despite recent volatility and losses from ATH, we can start discussing serous weakness sub 3000 with a potential longer trend break sub 2800.

entropycapital Updated 

The rarely visited 40-50 range in the VIX is critical. Break above the upper level and we have another 2008 type multi standard deviation cascade of liquidations.

entropycapital Updated 

The long term outperformance of equities over gold that started after the 2008 crisis lost steam at the end of 2018, an amazing 10 year run. Looking at the SP500 to Gold ratio if we break SPY/GLD sub 2 consistently, we could be looking at a new regime : while the current crisis and ensuing recession play out, gold may outperform equities substantially.