fringe_chartist

fringe_chartist Updated 

Stong the lonks, I mean long the stonks! However, if we can't capture 4750, it's a bearish reversal! Also notice the regression lower deviation is greater than the upper deviation! It's a bearish sign on a greater time frame. Also consider that we might reject the middle line, but I'll consider it a high probability of making it into the blue unless something...

fringe_chartist Updated 

It took less than a year for relative yields to do what took 5 years in the previous cycle. Last time it was gentle and made us fall asleep at the wheel. This time, it's forcefed down our throat and the economy will be dragged down by these companies who have made harmful malinvestiments for years with no recourse. Look at half the companies on the Russell with no...

fringe_chartist

But prices evoke emotion. It's the double whammy that makes processing functions (signals) so attractive. Lots of technical analysis uses price as an input into a function with the goal of normalizing output or analyzing it for a specific time period. I like to use log returns, that is, the logarithm of returns over a specific period, as it's arguably one of the...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Historically speaking. Just an observation. I am a long-term bull of BTC but I think we're somewhere in the middle of the current trend, ex.

fringe_chartist

If you draw a regression since the decline of assets began (ex. insiders liquidating asset positions, "inflation is fine but we're concerned" rhetoric, long term treasuries beginning to invert yield curve, 2020 forced market response waning), we reached the bottom of the channel yesterday. Many thought it would go lower and thus assets would be fine however we...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Market participants are often fooled by the dissonance of nominal yields versus real yields. Ie, what is the nominal return of the S&P, versus the return of the S&P per dollar that exists? The money supply has become merely a proxy to supply hedgers against the dollar with scarce assets via cheap, practically free, dollars. But if you look at the real rate of...

fringe_chartist

If you would, you are long the S&P and short gold.

fringe_chartist Updated 

So many shorts were forced out of the game yesterday and people are in a rush to short again because of the action, but selling is weak. Therefore, we should go long until the structure plays out or is violated. I went long yesterday as selling looked weak near 840 but I still think buying here should be a consideration. I'll consider under the 870 area a...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Yellow = equal average weighted basket of Wheat + Soy + Corn + Sugar White = M2

fringe_chartist

I'm a skeptic of the current trend. Even though it's showing somewhat bullish signs, I feel like we are destined to break below the 0.75 area.

fringe_chartist

Speculation resumes and the market will find new resistances. With the fed meetings out of the way till March, the question of dollar strength is up in the air as there is now uncertainty about what was just priced in. Without the ivory tower shouting at the market, now markets get shoved the "other" way until they can't take anymore. Will 96 be support? What do...

fringe_chartist

The same pattern from 2000/2008 is playing out, only faster this time. Is the situation different? Sure. Is the overall environment fundamentally different? No. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the same result.

fringe_chartist

Doesn't really matter what market pair you are looking at, pretty much all equities and assets are looking to make a reflexive bounce. The highlighted portion is a 200 day linear regression channel and we could make a bounce towards the middle of the channel until monetary policy changes come to fruition starting in March. The market was willing to sell on the...

fringe_chartist

A large player seems to be making decisions based in real terms, which is not revealed by the socially accepted AAPL chart which is based in dollars. Will future traders be enticed by such numerical values if it eventually harms them? To be clear, in this idea: "real terms" = the price as a proportion of total dollars, adjusted for debasement TOTAL_USD = M2, a...

fringe_chartist

Let's avoid lines, averages and indicators for a minute and try to look at inferences the candles might be giving away in plain sight. Observation: After a price increase of at least 400%, the last two times the market had 10 consecutive monthly candles with 7 closing down and 3 closing up, a decline of 50% was imminent. Will it play out this time? Note: The...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Watch out for AAPL and MSFT. They have the highest weightings BY FAR in the S&P 500, 6.2% and 5.9% respectively, and seem the most susceptible to downturn, as opposed to Amazon which has the 3rd highest weighting at a meager 3.9%. We could see a local rally but if these don't come roaring higher, it'll be another "sell the rip".

fringe_chartist

Anyone's guess. Price broke into no man's land in after hours futures.

fringe_chartist

Tesla looks like it's forming an end-of-distribution pattern while Microsoft and Apple have already began to make a small move down. But Tesla was the most volatile during this time. Wouldn't that mean it could form an ascending triangle and breakout? Yes, but this is the unlikely scenario, unless there are bullish fundamentals like an inflation increase, and...