haug01

haug01

I went short one dow future in my margin account this AM near the 3 minute peak.

haug01

Semiconductors hit a weekly double top at the same level as the 2000 dotcom crash. I went long SOXS (3x semiconductor bear) and long SDOW (DJI 3x bear) in my 401k right before the market closed yesterday. I got lucky as a bought these right before the Cohn resignation announcement which tanked the futures market. I had also gone short 2 DJI futures. I already...

haug01

Silver finds support at $16.2. COT futures data show that the Commercial Trader Short/Long Ratio is down to 1.23. This is a strong buy signal. The COT data can be seen on barchartdotcom and goldseekdotcom. Since USD has shown a lot of strength recently, it is reasonable to cost average smaller positions into this over the next 4-8 weeks. I am long 1 silver...

haug01

EURUSD hits a double top. In the futures market (go to barchartdotcom), the Commercial traders are at an all time record net short position. DXY leads the currency futures heat map today. I was already long one DXY future with a small gain. I will go short one EURUSD future. I will go long UUP in my 401k. FWIW, grains are strong (I am long), metals are weak...

haug01

COT data show that the commercial traders have closed a significant fraction of their net short position. The commercial traders short/long ratio is 1.74. I would prefer it to be closer to 1.5 but it may be there when Fridays report comes out. The large speculators have mostly capitulated. I went long one silver future this AM and will open a half position in...

haug01 Updated 

The Dow Jones's Weekly RSI is Turning Down From Overbought Territory. I went short one DJI future last week which did well. I opened an SDOW position in my 401k which got stopped out around breakeven after the overnight rally extending into Friday's daytime rally. I went short another future Friday at $23410. The US central bank has stopped quantitative easing...

haug01

The Global Stock Market's (excluding US) Monthly RSI is Entering Overbought Territory. While not as extreme as VT, I would be careful about going long here in developed markets or emerging markets. For a while longer, I expect it will outperform the US but I think it will for in upcoming months. The ECB is planning (that may change if stocks or especially bonds...

haug01

The Global Stock Market's Monthly RSI is Hitting a Top in an Overbought Position. This is dominated by US equities. There is no etf to short this index in my 401k. I am currently short one Dow future. Trying to short the US market has not been very rewarding so far. I will start shorting it more going forward. I watched my 401k fall a lot in 2008 and...

haug01

I saw this yesterday AM went went short one future. I closed that last night at the support line. I am sorry I didn't have time to post this then but I had to leave for work. I will try to short it again as the downward channel develops (if it does). I will be watching for more weakness in the other US equities indices. There are no COT data on Barchartdotcom.

haug01 Updated 

Multiple authors already posted this pattern under EURUSD. I previously posted on the EURUSD Bearish Pin Bar on the daily chart (August30, 2017). Back then, I did not look at the COT data. I am correcting that oversight now. Go to wwwdotbarchartdotcom and look under futures then under Commitment Of Traders. It looks like the commercials play futures on a...

haug01

I went long on one DXY future this AM. I closed my open XAGUSD position for a nice profit. I do not have any open XAUUSD positions now. While I expect DXY weakness, this chart favors DXY strength. I would not be surprised to get stopped out with a small loss here.

haug01 Updated 

10 Year US Bonds find support and break their downtrend line. UST has reasonable liquidity. I will open a half position in my 401k today.

haug01 Updated 

Silver breaks its downtrend line. I will open a half position on SIL in my 401k and go long an XAGUSD future in my margin account on a pull back in the 5 minute chart.

haug01 Updated 

The COT data is very important for traders to understand. Go to barchartdotcom. In the upper left, click on futures . On the left, click on commitment of traders. In the center left, click on DXY. The middle graph shows the positions of the Commercials (banks, etc), the Large Speculators, and the Small Speculators. The lower graph shows Dealer Intermediaries,...

haug01

Gold finds support at 1268. I went long on a gold future last night at 1276.1. I will open a half position in GDX in my 401k today.

haug01

Banks do better in a high interest rate environment. The US central bank is going to be reducing its balance sheet by selling US bonds. As the yield curve steepens, interest rates rise. If reflation holds (DXY falls, interests rates rise AND it doesn't crash the market), banks could do very well. Watch for upward resistance here. The european banks are up...

haug01

For DXY to rally, it needs to break its downtrend line. The result of course affects currencies, gold, commodities, and bonds. chartwatchers (www.tradingview.com) has a great post on this today. BLUE43 (www.tradingview.com) has multiple charts on this. I posted it as neutral but I am short USB10YUSD via TWO in my 401k. I will tighten the stop loss on that,

haug01 Updated 

After breaking downward from a descending triangle, JP225USD rallied with all the other global equities. It has shown some resistance at $19,900 which was a former support. If it breaks down, JPYUSD and XAUUSD should rise. Conversely, If it breaks up, JPYUSD and XAUUSD should fall. I will watch the Japanese open and decide whether to go long or short on these trades.