Big pop on breaking the 1.61 and then topped on the 2.61. Hit stops on my shorts 2080. Didn't even see this spike initially (Really didn't expect such a move so early in the week) or I'd have tried to fade it. May or may not have went well. Might have got my stops sniped, might have shorted the high. Can go either way with these ones. I think we may have seen...
Firstly, congrats to bulls. Well done. I quit on my big short attempts on this a while ago (And in general am trading smaller in crypto because why pay big spreads when the FX etc markets are moving so much and almost free to trade) but this looks like the spot to try again. I still maintain my thesis this is a bull trap in a developing downtrend.
GME made a parabolic rally. A first top at 76 and now has made a 76 retracement of that drop. Might be the end of the bear market rally here.
I'm very much a "M's and W's" guy when it comes to harmonics. I rarely look for or spot these ones with lots of false breakouts. But this looks like a textbook shark pattern. Textbook pic attached for reference.
Gold is filling a bearish butterfly pattern on the daily. Along side USD hitting major supports this might set the scene for a dramatic turn in gold. Positioned short here and would build position into a drop is one comes.
TLT has been in a rally of late. When I bought this at 84 I'd planned to hold longer. However, this looks suspiciously like an Elliot correction. Back to a bear bias on bonds. Update to
The recent rally has been very aggressive (Much more so than I expected), but it still fits inside of the context of Elliot correction. A big wave 2 can go up to a double top (And sometimes even feature a wick spike out). We have clear 5 waves down. This might be the latter part of wave C. Flat ranging top usually come in three phases. One - Range. Two -...
Complimenting the TLT forecast: Bat pattern in the 10 year yields. Norms of this pattern is to be super strong into the end, have massive attention and almost everyone expecting the move to continue. Bats often both top and break with news. Over the last days I've been strongly suggesting to real life friends they dump risk assets and buy bonds.
Correction was nicely signalled by a bat pattern. We've now reached the 76 support level. Unless we break the 76 my bias is now towards 6%. Update to
This has been in a crash of late and got a lot of attention for it but we're getting close to the levels where often even in a downtrend a big bounce is due. With the caveat that this can rug if supports are broken, there's high RR long ops in this area.
Not been doing much with SPX recently since it's been essentially range bound. Slightly grinding upside move. Been waiting for harmonic topping signals to size up. Potentially forming these now at 4590. Scaling up swing shorts again.
MSFT is at a new high. Forming in a bat pattern and looking suspiciously like the major false breakout in BTC before its big reversal. Super high RR ops here because if this is a false breakout it should run just enough to bring in bulls but not enough to pay them. Fading this here with tight stops.
Really is the last time I am going to try this. Made some decent money in the drops over last day but gave about a 3rd of it back during the rally today. This still feels so much like a squeeze. If it is a really strong reversal is coming. Taking some more shorts here and buying more deep OTM puts.
Really are at the maximum tolerance I can take before I have to ditch my bear bias and go over all my work but I can't shake the feeling this rally is so suspicious. If this is a squeeze, a mega drop is coming. Really requires sellers to come in hard and strong to defend the last high. Feel a bit like we're at a binary spot now. Whatever happens here will...
Hasn't been my best week. Coming off a couple weeks that were literally personal bests. Underestimated the rally significantly and missed various points to pick up longs. Didn't get hammered too much in net PL for the month but have gotten almost nothing right. Sometimes you're the windscreen and sometimes you're the bug. I still think I may be "Not wrong, but...
USD has uptrended early in the week and recently had really big corrections. I think we're perhaps near the end of these and am taking multiple USD positions. Short AUDUSD, NUZDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and long USDCHF.
I think it's possible we may be about to see a big down week in SPX. Timing is generally not my strongest point and I usually avoid timing forecasts (Because even a flat candle makes you totally wrong) but a whole confluence of factors come together to make it worth a shot. Also done well enough in bear trades over the last month to use some of the profit for...
I think crypto is in general in the top of a bear market rally starting off the FTX bust. www.tradingview.com I keep seeing posts talking about how "Bear are saying xxx just like they were at the Nov low". The Nov low was quite obvious. Bad news. Butterfly spike low. As a bear, let me assure you it's not only people who missed the low that think crypto...