In BTC right now we have a really interesting setup where if it comes to pass there’s a bearish reversal we can be almost sure of a rug pull event. For a big bearish reversal thesis to be valid here the rally from the 15K low would have to be the Mother of all bull traps. If it is a bull trap > Then there has to be a rug pull. We can be almost certain of it. Like...
The recent spike in SPX took it a tiny bit over the resistance level I expected to hold but we're done this inside of a butterfly pattern, which is a known spike out pattern. On a 5 min chart we have a tiny version of a head and shoulders after this with the neck line of that breaking recently. If this is going to be a rejection, that should be the high in....
This is a very generic trading post but I've decided to use the BTC chart because it seems apparent to me there are people here who may benefit from this. In this post we're going to discuss the difference between building your trade plans like a pro trader rather than presenting your view as if it's solid Truth, like a poser. Pros and Posers There are...
In the explosive several 100 point moves we had last night we hit major resistance levels in the USD. DXY has made a 161 extension of the recent range and this is the best topping signal I know of. The rule here is if we're into a top it should turn by/before the 220 fib. Taking short entries close to the 220 with stops right behind it. We might be due to see...
Further to my post on how the market could (Probably) most efficiently gain liquidity from bear stop losses and new chasers of the bull that, here's the big bat spike out pattern that could form and support this hypothesis. Here was the bat into the final high of 2007.
In 2022 I posted my theory the BTC longs chart had bubble like tendencies. I was partly correct. I forecast longs would spike and then drop. They didn't spike. Did drop. My forecast here was based on the expectation people would close out longs near the low and there'd not be much participating in the rally. That's how things realistically go. Social media...
This post is to address objections to my bear thesis below: USD is Dying If your long BTC bet is designed to be a short USD bet then the rational thing to say here would be your bet short US interest rates. You're basically long inflation and being long inflation is being short interest rates because low interest rates are inflationary and higher ones are...
What a long way we've come from the panic over the SBF thing. When I posted the points warning of a short squeeze coming the short interest in BTC was over 9,000. Today, the short interest in BTC is at an all time low. We now into the area where there'd classically be most risk of a rug pull setup in BTC, but we have very few people interested in betting on it.
Repost because I meant to link to a TV post and linked to an X post. So my last version will have to be deleted. BTC is on fire today with an exceptional spike up. I think this is good spot for bulls to be cautious because all of this strong price action has now taking us into the long term resistance levels. BTC now trades a bit over the 76 fib. I find in most...
I stopped trying to fade the BTC rally a while ago. It was like chewing bricks and I also have had other things to be dealing with IRL over the last month. But I am starting to fancy the odds of a swing short again. I think we probably have another leg up first. Would love to come in as a short somewhere around 55K with a target somewhere around 10K, though....
Had limit orders waiting 54.5 - 55k for weeks. These are now filling. We're currently at the 76 retracement (Ideal level for tred cont if we're in a bull trap) and we're also retesting the price I first posted my BTC short analysis in 2021. Which may be an important retest. All shorts filled with stops over the 86 fib. Update to
The max pain move for SPX would be price making an abrupt low. The early rally producing multiple bear traps. Then running the previous high. By a small margin. Not enough to please the "Blow-off" thesis but too much for the shorts to endure. At this point, there'd be a general consensus the bear has failed. I'd expect also a suitable news narrative to...
Follow up to We're now up to the classic 76 retracement level of a bull trap. If SMCI is setting up the broad reversal spoken of previously, this should be around the end of the bull trap. Stops must be taken if we break the 86 fib. Something horrible is liable to happen above there.
It does not feel like it, but bears have finally gotten to the point where we have the most value betting on a big reversal. But with that comes the fact we're also very close to the levels where bears would probably be best to forego bearishness for a considerable amount of time. Let's start with the obvious objection to being a bear now, we're making new...
Big downswing hit. Now it's possible we form various types of bull traps / new highs. Lot of value long here 820 with really tight stops. Nasty if it breaks, but high RR to the required stop loss level.
Harmonic patterns are reversal patterns, but if you trade harmonics a lot you'll notice they usually work perfectly or there is a huge break against you. Which means harmonic failures are often momentum indicators. This is one of the most reliable things I know in trading. Harmonics will be major decision levels. We do not know the direction, but we know an...
Complimenting the possible topping pattern in NVDA, NVDS is now at major supports. As a general rule of thumb when a 1.61 of the last upswing breaks the 2.20 zone is a good target. It can go a bit further but this is where the trade becomes more risky. In times the 2.20 acts as support the 1.61 is retested and often the 1.27 spiked out. Note, this happens a...
NVDA gaps up somewhere close to 15% on positive earnings. This takes us to the max expected spike out tolerance of the 2.61 fib. I love to short things when they are spiking out big levels. Love to short things when they are hyper up over a short period of time and I love to short things at new highs on positive news. So, here I go.