This post is intended as a sort of bookmark in time to document what's going on right now, because this is the wildest divergences of opinions and expectations I've ever seen. Attached in the charting pic here is a piece I wrote in mid 2021. In that post I was mostly referring to the meme stocks and to some extend the crypto markets. I said I'd never seen more...
If we're making a high I think we should see this rally rejecting some time soon. A break over this area would mean we're more likely to be bull. Would probably wait for a break of high and look to buy a retest. Will sit out if we chop. Can't be bothered scalping ranges. Usually really easy to make money in the BO after if we range. Read more about the 76...
OBV stands for On-Balance Volume, which is a technical analysis indicator used by traders and investors to measure buying and selling pressure in a market. It was developed by Joseph Granville in the 1960s. Granville's theory was only a small number of big players are really important in the market. What they do is going to decide price. Conversely, the smaller...
It's easy to hate on inflation. The silent tax on the poor. The rich get to borrow the money into existence and spend it into the economy at a high value and then the process of borrowing money into existence creates a devaluation of the money by the time it reaches the general public on the lower levels. The theory on why this is meant to be good is known as...
ETGH hit the long term swing target posted in January a while ago. Since that time we've had the big 76 retest. Slight spike out of it and we currently hold the second test. In the instances where the 7 will hold, we'll not go back under it. This offers a good RR long op. We may have actually made a break of the 76 in the first run down, but even in these...
In discussions with BTC bulls in a couple of posts I've had here recently it occurred to me many of them show signs of problem gambling. I mentioned this to them a few times and they told me BTC isn't gambling. But from the perspective of someone who's been in trading a long time, I think we'd define their attitude to risk as "Problem Gambling". Curious...
NVDA went into a large clear uptrend on the break of the 1.61 fib. This is something we see in Elliot wave uptrends. If you follow my regular postings day trading you'll see me trading 1.61 breaks all the time and it's always when we get to the 2xx and 3.20 fibs I am most active in trailing my stops, because big reversals can come from these levels. NVDA has...
I feel like a lot of discussions I've had here recently are with people who know the future and/or the one true and correct way to make assessments of markets. I'm not a big believer in knowing the future and I do not know many people with over 5 yrs trading under their belt who is. I'd like to have a good old fashioned trading discussion, if anyone else is...
Strong down from the last posting saying we were into important supports. Targets on one of the first postings of GME short here hit in the last swing down, but these levels did not hold as support - which may spell out much more downside.
The Fattening of the Tails Since 2018 If you know about tails skip to the next paragraph. For those who don't, they're just another word for extremes. The idea is most of the moves in the market will be within an average expected move and then sometimes there'll be extremes. Rare events where far bigger moves happen. Think of it like the height of people. Most...
Recently we had a big flash bear trap and then a rapid recovery. These have happened in a lot of bull setups in SPX but it's also textbook for bearish Elliot waves (ABC). The bearish EW signal would fill soon. If it breaks then I think we're likely to see continued upside momentum. Plans to short a little higher and then if my stops hit buy a retest of the...
Spiking out the low of a parabolic rally is a very common occurrence in this type of pattern. It's a big panic point when all gains have been lost even if in very early to the rally. Often we see ultimate lows in these areas (Commonly off slow ranges) and even with things going much lower we see aggressive bounces. Here's an example. This is the same concept...
Here's a previous forecast on ARKK forecasting a possible low in this area. Spiking out the low of a parabolic rally is a very common occurrence in this type of pattern. It's a big panic point when all gains have been lost even if in very early to the rally. Often we see ultimate lows in these areas (Commonly off slow ranges) and even with things going much...
As part of my ongoing campaign to accumulate beaten down stocks on big support levels in case there's a new bull leg due to start, buying FB and will also add if it goes a bit lower. If we hold the 76 fib we can see a bull move.
I've left this chart marked up the same as it was on the last posting of AMC, which was quite a while ago. The market rallied a little higher but met strong resistance in the area forecast as the place to look out for bears. It looks like we might be entering into the break now. If we are, we might see the Elliot down legs develop.
As a general rule, parabolic trends will tend to correct sharply, get back to the mean, spike out the mean/previous low and then return to the mean where either a new uptrend starts or it meanders along sideways for a while. A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.
There's a lot of speculation NVDA is overextended and, well I can see their point. But maybe through the last years we have had waves 1 and 2 of Elliot. Which would mean we're in wave 3 and in wave 3 "Overextended" does not really exist. A super consistent trend is what is the norm. Wave 3's are incredibly easy trends to follow but a lot of the time in wave 3...
It seems crazy to think it's possible SPX could be near the end of a giant uptrend and start of a big reversal. It seems crazy today but if we took a hypothetical scenario where it did happen and in 20 years time you have to explain what happened to kids, do you think you'd be able to? If the SPX uptrend made a major turn, explaining how a bubble had formed and...