Big harmonics are everywhere. Surely something is cooking? harmonics either succeed of fail spectacularly. There are big ones all over the place. I'd be on alert for strong trends upon the decision of the harmonics. Can go either way, harmonic fails setup strong rallies. If these harmonics play out as they'd predict - some sort of shock move is probably coming.
"We're so Early" BTC bulls say we're so early and 100,000 people agree. Which isn't how things usually go when you're "Early". Moving Goalposts on Value Proposition The original value proposition of BTC was it would be a currency with various benefits over fiat currencies. It's never happened and as it's become more obvious it's not happening it's just...
We're down off a big resistance level and currently into a 76 retracement. Fair chance if we're in a down move we'll see the follow through of it here. Good spot for high RR shorts. Would get out the way quickly if high isn't made in the current area.
The way most people speak about BTC and the things they do with it seem far more in line with me with a speculative bet than a viable currency. Here's some examples; I've never been told, "Accept BTC via payment gateways, or you'll miss out big". I'm always told I should, "Buy BTC or I'll miss out big". And this is correctly framed because I've had BTC...
Smartphones are here to stay. Don't let the naysayers tell you otherwise! BB launch the first smartphone in 1999 and now in 2008 has become the industry leader!!! The stonk is up 700% in just the last two years. And the only way is up!!! By the year 2020 I predict EVERYONE will have a smartphone. We probably won't even speak to each other anymore. Just...
Japan recently officially announced a recession and then the BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Which, of course, means Nikkei makes a new high for the first time in 30 yrs. Because nothing is ever allowed to make any sense. But maybe this is a massive crab pattern... Which would make this a massive high. Could be a larger...
Late 2022 / Early 2023 the idea that rising interest rates would mean declines in equities was widely accepted. This was the keystone point of many bear cases. Moreover, the Fed pivoting was the prominent bull thesis. As it turned out, both interest rates and equities went higher for longer. And this is not actually a surprise, based on the back testing of...
NVDA is the stock of the current times, but is this driven by real substance or it's it enthusiasm based momentum following fuelled by creative accounting practices? Introduction: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), a leading technology company renowned for its innovations in graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, has recently...
The attempt at a new high so far has been unsuccessful. Producing a big wick. We've recently hit the area where I think the critical supports are. If BTC can not rally out of this area, I think we're going to see a rug pull. Critical support I think was around 62,500. We've traded under it and my bias is towards a break coming (Although when it comes to...
These types of patterns form and fail a lot in an uptrend and it's not advisable to use them as a sole strategy for fading a trend (Unless you're also using longs to offset losses on shorts) but this is coming in an area I've been looking at for a long time. So particularly interested in it. Built up a fair amount of short in the rally after the FOMC news. ...
Note - this analysis is entirely contingent upon a high being made here. A new high annuls the analysis. All this is doing is mapping out the typical swings we see in a break as part of prep for dealing with one if it comes. Betting the high is in here in speculative (I have puts, but it's a high RR setup). Follow up to: As discussed in the last post, there...
Here I'd like to propose to you a hypothetical stress test. The idea of a "Stress test" isn't to think about what you think will happen, it's to consider the affects of the things you do not think are going to happen happening. The stress test is as follows; If BTC was heading into a "Depression" style crash (Characterised by a drawdown of over 80% and five...
Let me first say I don't want to argue with BTC bulls. All I want to do is to discuss the properties of trends. We happen to be relating them to BTC and happen to be looking at a bear trend. In the last new high and drop in BTC something new happened. BTC made a bog drop and when a new high was made there was no follow through extension. This was the first...
When you look at the top of major crashes the sell signals are usually quite obvious. It's easy to look at them and wonder how anyone with a half decent eye for patterns and knowledge of previous tops not have spotted that. During my time betting on major reversals I've come to see the problem is usually not you miss the signals, you just see too many too soon....
The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern. Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template. However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems...
My attention was drawn to CVNA as a possible long trade last year due to extreme pessimism around it on social media. I seen about 20 people calling for it to go bankrupt in the same day. I often find when this happens it's worth having a look for TA patterns suggesting a "Fade the obvious" type of trade. Which CVNA had and has worked out really well. I gave...
In the impressive historic breakouts we've usually seen BTC very strong out of the retest of the previous high. We're retesting this level now and what happens in the near future I think is likely to dictate action for a while. If we can make a clean break of the high a new uptrend is on and if the attempts at it end in wicks that can be warnings of a bigger...
In stop hunting we usually see prices trading a little bit past the level they "Should". Looking very convincing at the time but turning into wicks and later being clear expressions of false breakout patterns. One of the most well known of the false breakout patterns is the head and shoulders. Where people see the pattern of higher highs and higher lows, buy...