I guess this morning was just yet another headfake, lol. Looks like they shut the small cap algos off, things look bearish but hard to tell where this whipsaw market is going. Staying cash until MFI goes oversold. tried to go long this morning but everything hit my trailing stop when Euro markets closed. Made a little beer money, lol.
Well, Powell finally started talking straight. No "disinflation" BS. I guess he's getting tired of being the Village Idiot, and just maybe he finally realized that commodity prices and the market move in the same direction. "Rate cuts this year are not our baseline expectation." "Policy has to be tight enough to bring down inflation, some of that tightness can...
RSI didn't hit overbought as I expected and MFI is way overbought Anything can happen on Fed day, but feeling bearish. No long positions, bought a few PTON puts again this morning, lol. Kicks and giggles bet.
No idea what this wacky market is doing, lol. ES MFI now overbought, so not chasing the pump. NQ is not there yet, but RTY is also overbought. PTON puts hit my trailing stop, so I'm all cash. The bank panic appears to be over, gold is down and PTON is up. Crazy market. Part of the problem I'm having is that everything is reacting to "news" and chart patterns...
Indicators haven't been much help with ES, just been whipsawing in a "pennant-like" formation. Not really sure I'd call this a true pennant, but there is definitely indecision in the market. Probably doesn't break out (up or down) until Wed afternoon.
NQ MFI is almost oversold, so I assume that means a pump tomorrow when it gets there. NQ is the only index that appears to be melting up. No idea which way the market gaps tomorrow, but I might go long on tech tomorrow. No idea what the market is gonna do this afternoon, so much news related whipsaw....
NQ MFI is now touching oversold but FDAX shows no direction for the gap tomorrow. Indicators are neutral. I still have my PTON puts, it's not moving with the market anyways, lol.
Overbought and hit resistance. Monday is probably a down day for everything. I think this "flight to tech" is a bit strange, almost old school where everyone would jump into FAANG stocks when they got scared, lol. Small caps in a full on collapse, I think small caps drag everything down. Plus I think the Fed goes .25 if not .5%, they have to tank the market to...
Gold going parabolic, but I think it has one more leg next week. The orange line is the March 2022 Ukraine war peak. So basically I'm saying gold hits the top again. Posting because of one of my followers.
The market is pricing in a rate CUT, and they're not gonna get it. Expect turmoil next Wed. If Simple Jack Powell gets dovish because of a few bank failures, he'll lose the inflation fight. Tofu futures haven't dropped yet. Then again, he is the Village idiot, so anything can happen.
Appears to be a complete pump and dump failure. I got bullish because of the buy volume the past couple of days, but it hit overbought on MFI and now is dropping. i think there's potential for it to stay oversold for a day or two when it gets there because it's dropping on much lower volume. Those that bought have to sell, and volume isn;t matching up yet.
Banks might be toast but the Fed isn't done until tofu comes crashing down in a H&S pattern. If they don't raise rates next week, everything pops back up. My guess at this point is .25% because the Fed is usually more hawkish than ECB, so I doubt the Simple Jack Powell keeps rates the same. I doubt he does .5% though, that would absolutely tank the market. Of...
All of my followers know that I have a gap fill rule for PCAR, it always fills down gaps. Unfortunately, this looks more like the "oh shit" moment that happened at the beginning of the COVID drop. I lost quite a bit of money on that, if you remember it dropped hard the next day, and that gap stayed open for a long time. Fact of the matter is, this bank issue is...
MFI is overbought but RSI is not yet. Appears to be a melt up because MFI bounced multiple times into overbought, what a crazy place for a melt up considering all of the bank issues. I expect a dip or even drop when the Fed raises rates since a rate hike is no longer priced in. However, the market managed to stay above the expanding wedge breakout line, so...
GM RSI hit oversold on the daily and MFI is moving up. No idea if it goes straight up like Jan or double bottoms like Oct, Fed meeting next week. Seems to me like the futures algos are on a melt up, there's some serious money pumping into the market on these morning gaps down. The worst of the news is probably over except the Fed next Wed. This whole year has...
The bull scenario for PCAR is that I drew the wedgie wrong and it's still in an ascending wedgie. I had plotted $81 - 82 as the target before this bank crisis. the market does have a weird tendency to rally into a Fed meeting even when the market expects a rate hike. Remember he Jan meeting?
I keep telling you guys it's never a good thing when the market pumps bad news like yesterday. Also told you I was still bearish. Looks like RSI and MFI are now headed towards oversold, which would mean we're headed lower. You never know though, Europe is doing teh alternating up and down day BS.
Market priced out the .25% hike for next week, if the Village Idiot sticks to his guns (which he should) then the market tanks next Wed because they need to price it back in and adjust portfolios accordingly. The problem here is that we're dealing with a complete idiot, so chances are high that he won't do what he needs to do. Tanking the market is part of...