2Y bond yields still melting up This leads me to believe that tomorrow is gonna be a pump and dump, nobody expecting a rate cut soon, and market still needs to price in a rate hike for July. The algos still have to make their money, so I expect a gap up then a sell off as bond traders price in a rate hike. Remember the inflation target is 2%, the expected...
MFI overbought and so is RTY MFI but NQ isn't there yet. RSI is also not overbought yet. Not sure if the market is setting up for a pump and dump or if the selloff starts when Euro markets close. I think I'll wait at least until NQ MFI hits overbought before buying puts. Like I said earlier, they could be setting up for a pump and dump, and there could be a...
Gotta be on the road this morning so posting an early update. Futures slightly green but ES and RTY MFI are heading to overbought quickly. Chances are good they hit overbought this morning. CPI numbers tomorrow before market open. I'm bearish, but could be another pump and dump like Europe CPI. Might just grab $1k worth of puts in garbage like BTC or ARKK for...
Garbage is what garbage does. BTC and ARKK basically have the same chart pattern. Garbage correlates with garbage which inversely correlates with bond yields. Anyways, CPI numbers released Tuesday before market open.
Rising yields be damned, algos still doing algo things, note how it bounced when it hit oversold on RSI. Just wanted to show you guys my induhcators work, and my target was correct, lol. Could double dip into oversold here so not feeling very bullish. BTC did actually go lower, the divergence is very bearish, but ETH hit the next support. Could bounce, but if...
Cryptos seem to be tracking bonds this week instead of the stock market. Divergence between market action and cryptos. This is extremely bearish because the market has rate cuts priced in for later this year and next year, which probably won;t happen. When that gets priced in TLT will probably double bottom, so potentially BTC will as well.
Lost the channel line but it hit oversold this morning so it could backtest. Not really sure what happens today, prob gonna flip my puts.
There's still an inversion between 1 and 2 yr bonds, which means the market still has a rate cut priced in for next year. On top of that, it looks to me like we're headed over 5% this year, so even the 1 yr needs to go up. What's interesting is that the rate inversion started at the same time as the market rally, last Oct. I dunno if the market fixes some of...
This one is a bit more obvious, oversold. Watch out EOD because there will be shorts covering. Lot sof garbage stocks tanked this week including cryptos.
I told you guys yesterday that they would sell off the entire CPI pump and dump, and they did causing futures to go red. You can see the bounce, but there's also more room to the downside. Could just be a whipsaw morning. No idea which way it goes Monday.
Bounced right off of my first target but I wouldn't go long overnight, still thinking gap down tomorrow. Besides, RSI is not oversold yet. I think the bounce is more about short sellers covering since the market sold off the entire Powell pump
US CPI data release Tuesday at 5:30am I see a big move coming, up or down. Might do a straddle Monday.
Assuming this was a pennant breakdown, I drew up the target area. Coincides with a complete selloff of the Powell pump or the next support below. Not even considering going long until Tuesday at the earliest. Tomorrow could be one of those days where the market gaps down and the algos buy back because RSI will prob hit oversold. I have BITO puts, not trading...
THere's the pennant I was talking about yesterday, I didn't even need to adjust my lines. FUtures up on Germany CPI numbers Not sure if it breaks out today or waits until US CPI numbers Tuesday premarket. MFI is almost oversold, but not there yet.
Guess the auction didn't go well, lol. Market is pricing in more rate hikes, and Euros did a pump and dump on CPI numbers earlier. Note that this drop caused the market to drop and BTC lost support right after. BTW, Auction schedule: home.treasury.gov The market's trading entirely on inflation and bond yield news right now, better pay attention.
MFI is oversold but the Euros did a pump and dump on CPI numbers so not feeling bullish here. Will wait until RSI gets oversold to play the bounce. Expecting a gap down tomorrow, so might buy puts EOD. Right now just holding some shitcoin (BITO) puts, will add more if they pump this afternoon. The market is just repeated pump and dumps, you could have shorted...
Indicators are now neutral, ES could form a pennant here or just tank. Fancy way to say I dunno. All cash. Lots of stuff at support, GLD, BTC, PCAR. Could bounce, but if they gap the market down tomorrow it'll be huge. Not gonna play it.
FDAX RSI hit overbought with RSI divergence. They did the pump and dump on CPI numbers, 0.5% m/m inflation is NOT good news. MFI oversold on US indices, so expecting a whipsaw day, I expect Europe to go down tomorrow, so I don't recommend holding a long position overnight. Every time there's a divergence in indicators between Europe and US, we get a whipsaw so...