My 04/17/22 post noted that the 04/16/22 Full Moon could signal a bottom on either 04/18/22 or 04/19/22. On 04/18/22 the SPX made a new low for the decline that began after the 03/29/22 top. Since 03/29/22 the SPX has been making a series of lower tops and lower bottoms. Today 04/19/22 the SPX broke above the most recent prior daily high. RSI + MA had a bullish...
There are two time cycles that target a potential SPX bottom on either 04/14/22 or 04/18/22. The first is a lunar cycle. Occasionally markets will turn on either new or full moons. I use a leeway of plus or minus two trading days from a full or new moon. So far in 2022 there have been two effective signals, on 01/04/22 and 03/03/22. There was a full moon on...
My 03/24/22 posted illustrated that on 03/14/22 the SPX probably completed an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle which could be Primary wave "4" of an Elliott five wave impulse pattern that began in March 2009. If this count is correct, the rally that began on 03/14/22 could mark the completion of the secular bull market since 2009. After completion of the...
This monthly SPX chart illustrates what I believe is the most likely very long-term Elliott wave count. For US stocks a Grand Super Cycle Impulse wave may have begun in the year 1790. Super Cycle wave "I" is the Dow Jones Industrial Aveage (DJI) top in 1929. Super Cycle wave "II" is the DJI bottom in 1932. Super Cycle wave "III" is the DJI and SPX tops in...
Many of my posts have speculated that the SPX rally from March 2009 to April 2010 was Primary wave "1" of a Elliott five - wave impluse pattern. The SPX action since its all-time high has provided some amazing evidence that suggests that the April 2010 SPX peak was probably Primary wave "1" Within an Elliott five wave impulse patterns there's usually a FIbonacci...
The SPX500 has pushed above trendline resistance and a double top at 4415, from a Point & Figure perspective this is a very bullish set up. The next resistance zone begins at 4535. A successful push above this zone could open the door for a move to the all-time high made in early January. Seasonal patterns for US stocks are bullish until late April early May. Mark
My prior Crude Oil post noted a short-term top could be made soon. The top has been achieved. Note that the daily RSI has crossed over its moving average. Short- term seasonal patterns are bearish until late March. The most likely area for the next bottom is in the .618 retrace level and prior chart support, 85.81 to 86.80. Broader seasonal patterns are...
My 10/27/21 post "Crude Oil Could Reach $100" noted that there was resistance in the $87 to $97 area and that $100 could be reached. My 01/14/22 post "Crude Oil Could Reach $100 - Part Two" noted that that $85 to $86 could be reached in the next week - which was achieved. Since then Crude Oil has blown past $100 and is now near the high made in the week of...
Daily MACD has a bullish crossover RSI has crossed over its moving average line. A move above chart resistance and .382 retracement of last bear move, opens the door for a rally to the .618 retrace level.
Just Prior to 02/024/22 the SPX broke important support. The break triggered a micro-crash, then a bottom was made at the .618 retrace of the bull move since January 2021. The bottom made on 02/24/22 had significant bullish momentum divergences. The choppy decline from the all-time hogh looks like a correction within an ongoing bull market. In Elliott wave terms...
This is a red alert! The SPX500 which follows the S&P E- Mini futures yet has prices that closely match the SPX has broken important suppport. There was a nine - column row of support at SPX500 4338. With Point & Figure charts - support/resistance strength is measure by the length of the row. The break implies a move down to at least the SPX500-3887 level....
Markets that fall more than 10% can sometimes be the start of a bear market or the prelude to a final bull market top. What happened at the SPX major top in 2007 could be giving tantalizing clues of what may happen later in February. From July to August 2007 the SPX declined 11.9% and went siginicantly below its 200 - day moving average (MA). The drop took 23...
On 02/02/22 the SPX crossed above the 4582.24 bottom made on 01/10/22. Under the prior SPX - Elliott wave count the 01/04/22 to 01/10/22 decline was the presumed wave "one" of a developing Elliott Impulse wave. In Elliott wave rules, wave "fours" can not travel into the price zone of Impulse wave "ones" The crossover of 4582.24 invalidates the supposed Impulse...
Several of my posts have noted that the SPX had major Fibonacci resistance in the SPX 4840 to 4890 area. Sometimes markets can have important turns on or near the cusp of a new year. On 01/04/22 the second trading day of the new year, the SPX hit an all-time high at 4818 just 22 points below the major resistance zone. Subsequently the SPX has had the deepest...
One of my followers asked about RAPT which recently had a rapid 50% decline. The question was if there's a bounce off the bottom made on 01/21/22, where could the most likely retracement level occur. The fixed range Volume Profile indicator shows that the strongest selling of the drop was a 24.42. This is called the Point of Control - potentially the...
My 10/27/21 post "Crude Oil Could Reach $100" noted Crude Oil as measured by the countinuos contract - next month in front (CL2!) had overhead resistance in the $87 to $97 area. The daily high in late October was $83.83. Subsuquently Crude Oil went into a seasonal decline bottoming in November. Crude Oil is now in a seasonally bullish time until early March....
My 12/11/21 post "Major Top Near Full Moon ?" noted that occasionally market tops/bottoms can occur on new/full moons. Stocks usually have bottoms at full moons, tops on new moons - sometimes they switch, it depends on what the market is doing going into the lunar time zone. As it turned out rhe SPX declined into the 12/19/21 full moon time zone, plus or...
Occasionally markets can have turns on or near Full/New moons - plus or minus two trading days. Since August 2021 there have been five lunar signals. The next Full moon is on Sunday 12/19/21. The SPX is on track to reach the major Fibonacci price zone of 4860 to 4890 which was illustrated in one of my recent posts. December 2021 is also a long- term Fibonacci...