Point & Figure charts are a great tool to discover support/restistance points. The chart of Silver in US dollars (XAGUSD) reveals an important double bottom at 21.42. Below that area there is no chart support until the $17.75 area. A break below $21.42 could trigger a rapid drop down to at least $17.75. Mark
Several of my recent US stock market posts have noted that a major peak of the bull move since March of 2020 could be made in December 2021. The SPX decline from the 11/22/21 top appears to probably be a correction within an on going bull move. During the decline from late November 2021 the VIX has had six consecutive breaks above the upper Bollinger band - the...
My Prior BTCUSD post examined the BTCUSD - weekly Elliott wave pattern. This posts drills down to the daily level which illustrates that the presumed Intermediate wave (5) has a clear Elliott - five - wave impulse pattern. From the all-time high it appears a downward Elliott - five wave impulse coud be forming. This, plus what appears to be a completed Elliott...
On 11/26/21 there was a global stock sell off on news of a new Coronavirus variant. However in the US - 11/26/21 was a post holiday shortened session when most if not all stock fund managers were probably on vacation. If this is the case, what the stock fund managers do on 11/29/21 could determine the fate of the bull move since March 2020. November is...
My 4/19/21 post "Massive Bubble May Have Burst" noted BTCUSD had probably completed an Elliott five - wave impulse pattern. Subsequently BTCUSD went into the largest drop since early 2020. Recently BTCUSD made a marginal new all-time high which appears to be the fifth wave of a larger degree impulse pattern. The bearish momentum divergences illustrated in the...
My prior post noted the SPX may have completed an Elliott wave - Horizonal Triangle at the SPX 10/30/20 bottom. If so this could be Primary wave "4" of a Elliott five wave impulse pattern that began in March 2009. Theres usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves "one" and "five" of an impulse pattern. Most of the time the calulations for post Horizontal...
My 10/30/21 post "Bull Market Termination December 2021?" illustrated that the Dow Jones Industial Average (DJI) could currently be in an Elliott wave - Primary wave "5" of a five wave formation that began in March 2009. The S&P 500 (SPX) also appears to currently be in a Primary wave "5". The SPX chart in todays 11/07/21 post is an update and zoomed in...
Please see my 12/28/19 post "Long-Term Forecast for 2020 and Beyond." That post illustrated a fascinating web of 89 - years of Fibonacci time cycles that pointed to 2021 as a year in which there could be an important turn. This forecast method does not predict tops or bottoms, only potential turns. Price action into the turn zone determines tops or bottoms. ...
Crude Oil is seasonally bearish from September to early December, yet it is currently in a strong rally. When any commodity moves in the opposite direction of its seasonal trends it implies strength in the counter seasonal move. In the case of Crude Oil that means the bull trend could continue for several weeks. Using the Point & Figure method for weekly...
My recent posts have noted that the SPX decline since 09/02/21 was probably a correction within an ongoing bull market and that the decline could terminate in the mid 4100 area. On 10/15/21 the SPX pushed above the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the 09/02/21 to 10/04/21 drop. Additionally the SPX moved above an area of overhead resistance, this opens the door for...
My last post speculated that Oct 8th could be an important bottom. That was the release date for the monthly US payroll report which can occasionally trigger large moves in the US stock market. As it turned out the reaction of stocks was small and the SPX had a fairly narrow trading range. October 7th was the more interesting day, the SPX opened with a big move...
Longer-term evidence has hinted for several months that a major top could be developing for US stocks. The SPX all-time high was made 09/02/21, however so far the decline has been slow - only about 5% down at the 10/01/21 low. My more extensive writings note several factors that suggest the current drop could only be a correction within an ongoing bull...
My 09/15/21 BTCUSD post noted that the recent high came with the highest RSI reading since the recent rally began and another high could come with a bearish RSI divergence. On 09/16/21 BTCUSD reached the upside target zone with a bearish divergence. If the Elliott wave count is correct a third of a third wave down may have begun. These are the most powerful and...
There are always alternate Elliott wave counts. I've been illustrating an extended Elliott wave Impulse pattern up from the 03/23/20 bottom. This count is still valid but there is an alternative illustrated in todays post. This pattern helps explain why a major SPX top may have been made at the 09/02/21 all-time high of 4545.85 Prior posts have noted that the...
After the smash into the 09/07/21 bottom BTCUSD has been in a slow choppy rally that counts best as an Elliott Wave - Zigzag. The 30- minute RSI has reached its highest since the rally began on 09/07/21. Frequently this indicator has bearish divergences at tops. Perhaps there could be one more short-term rally to at or near the .618 retracement level. If...
My 09/05/21 post noted the SPX had potential for a final thrust up. This never materialized and it appear that the post Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle move up was a truncated fifth wave that did not exceed the high point of the Horizontal Triangle. This pattern and other bearish factors are discussed in my more detailed writings. Now all three of the main...
My prior BTCUSD post forecasted a possible resistance zone. That target has been reached and a powerful move down has begun. Minimum downside target for new down wave is the April 2021 low. Mark
For the last 18 months the US stock market has been in one of the most powerful and persistent rallies ever. The last time there was a rally of this duration was late 1994 to mid - 1996 which was in Elliott wave terms the third of a third wave up of a decade long bull move from late 1990 to early 2000. Since April 2021 several momentum and sentiment indicators...