A perfect bear storm could be developing for the US stock market. For several weeks external momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD have had bearish divergences. Internal indicators such as Advance/Decline lines and new 52 -week highs have been shockingly bearish. The main US indices have been making new highs, but underneath the surface many individual...
BTCUSD has rallied to just below a .618 retrace of the last decline. RSI + MA has a double bearish divergence, Stochastic has a bearish crossover. If the Elliott wave count is correct it implies a decline back to at least the 2021 low. Mark
Crude Oil and US stocks have similar seasonal patterns. US stocks are seasonally bearish August to October. Crude Oil is bearish August to December. My detailed writings have illustrated enormous amounts of bearish sentiment and momentum evidence. Now what's happen to Crude Oil (CL2!)could be another bearish factor. CL2! on 8/20/21 reached chart support -...
Normally when a stock index closes the trading day at or near the high of the day it is at least short-term bullish going into the next trading day. Most of the time a close near the high of the day comes after the stock index has been trending up through most of the trading day. This didn't happen on 08/13/21. The range of the day was established in the first...
The SPX could be near or at the end point of Primary wave "5' up from the March 2009 bottom. There's usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves "one" and "five" of Elliott wave motive patterns. The SPX supposed Primary wave "1" - the rally March 2009 to April 2010 had a growth rate of 82.93% multiplied by the Fibonacci inverse ration of 1.236 equates to a...
Its possible an Elliott five wave impulse pattern may have been completed at the 06/22/21 bottom. However, the supposed Minor wave ""4" has a truncated Elliott wave Zigzag correction. The supposed Minute wave "a" is lower than Minute wave "c". This factor opens the door for other Elliott wave counts. BTCUSD has rallied into potential Fibonacci resistance. The...
There's a double bottom in the 28800 area. Specifically a break of 28807 could open the door for a move down to the next support level. Momentum evidence from daily RSI is currently not in the oversold zone and implies more downside action. Mark
Today the SPX reached a gain of 100% growth from the March 2020 bottom. One of the farthest and fastest gains in the history of the US stock market. The last time something similar happened was the tech stock mania 1999 to early 2000. The result of that bubble bursting was a nearly three - year bear market. Momentum for the SPX as measured by the daily RSI has...
US stocks are seasonally bearish from May to October. In years such as 2021, when US stocks rise in May and June, they occasionally peak in August and decline into October. Crude Oil has a seasonal bullish pattern from June until August then declines into December. The Coronavirus recovery is probably the reason Crude Oil is rising. US stocks are being pulled...
Within an Elliott five-wave impulse pattern there's usually a Fibonacci price/time relationship between waves "one" and "five" The growth rate of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Primary wave "5" is 1.236 of Primary wave "1". Within the time dimension there's a near bullseye hit. Primary wave "1" was 286 trading days. Primary wave "5" was 285 trading...
My Prior BTCUSD post illustrated a completed Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle. Subsequently BTCUSD exceeded the top of the supposed Minor wave "E" Invalidating that wave count. It now appears the Horizontal Triangle could still be under construction, the 06/15/21 high is probably Minor wave "C" with the most recent drop as Minor wave "D". Also of interest the...
After moving sideways in what appears to be an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle BTCUSD is now moving down in what could be Intermediate wave (5). If so this wave could terminate below the major .618 retrace level. Daily Stochastic appears to have more room to run before it gets into the oversold zone. Mark
A commenter to my most recent SPX post asked why I didn't label the 09/02/20 peak as Intermediate wave (1). The sub divisions of the SPX 03/23/20 to 09/02/20 movement can not be counted as an Elliott motive wave because the supposed third wave is the shortest of the three motive - sub waves. Third waves can never be the shortest of the motive waves (1, 3, and 5). Mark
On 03/26/20 I posted on this site "Important Bottom in Place - Super Bullish Rally Underway. Subsequently I stayed bullish until July 20, 2020 when I issued a yellow alert - caution that an intermediate sized correction could be underway. The decline never happened, on August 6, 2020 I was back to bullish. When 2021 began I suspected that a major peak in US...
BTCUSD has broken below a double bottom in the 43800 - 44000 area. Daily Stochastic and RSI are not in the oversold zone. The door is open for a rapid drop to the 32000 area. Mark
My prior BTCUSD post noted a short-term trendline that the bears needed to break. Not only has this short-term line been broken, but also a larger trendline. Chart support at the prior decline was also broken. Daily Stochastic is only in the early phase of a bearish lines crossover. Daily RSI is still not in the oversold zone. This dramatic break through could...
Daily Stochastic has a bearish crossover, another bearish signal. Break below the short-term rising trendline could be the next bearish signal. Mark
The resistance target zone illustrated in my prior BTCUSD post has been reached and a new decline is underway. Watch for a daily Stochastic bearish crossover for additional bearish evidence. Minimum downside support is at the wave (1) bottom. A break of this support could open the door for a much larger decline. Mark