On 7/24/20 USDJPY broke below double bottom support, there's no significant chart support until the area around the last significant low made on 03/09/20. Both daily Stochastic and RSI are still above their oversold zones and implies price could continue lower. A near term move above 107.54 would invalidate the bearish forecast. Mark
Ending Diagonal Triangles (EDT) typically have throw overs of the trend line connecting waves one and three. The break through has taken longer than normal. Today the supposed EDT climaxed with a possible smaller degree EDT. The subsequent decline only marginally broke the lower EDT trend line. A decisive break below the EDT lower trend line will strongly imply...
This is a Yellow Alert - possible multi- week correction. Today 07/20/20 the SPX appears to have completed five - Elliott Waves up from the 03/23/20 crash bottom. Minor wave - 5 appears to be an Elliott Wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle. Minor wave 5 is .382 of Minor wave 1. Today is a New Moon - occasionally stock markets will top on New Moons. If the rally is...
On 7/10/20 there were duel bullish signals. At the open 7/13/20 the SPX had strong follow through, then broke above important resistance the SPX 6/8/20 rally high. It looked like time to do the bull dance. Wrong! SPX sharply declined and broke below a rising trend line. 30 minute momentum indicators have not reached oversold levels and the MACD has a sell...
Toady 7/10/20 the SPX had a Golden Cross - a crossing of the 50 - day MA with the 200 - day MA. Please note how long and how far the SPX rose after the last Golden Cross. Also the SPX broke above the declining trend line from the February high. These two signals strongly imply the SPX could reach the next resistance area - the February 2020 peak. Mark
My 6/23/20 post noted - triple tops are bullish. On 7/2/20 just after the open the SPX pushed above the triple top and it appeared to be the start of a big up day. However, the rally quickly stopped and the SPX made its low of the day near the end of the session. Currently there are several different Elliott Wave patterns that could be in effect. In this...
My 06/15/20 post noted the SPX could be in a multi-week decline. Since then there's been no downside follow through and the SPX has been in a trading range. Today the IXIC and NDX have made new all-time highs. The weight of evidence has shifted to the bull side - the correction is probably complete and a break above 3155 could be very bullish. Above this zone...
The opening minute of the SPX session on 6/19/20 was very important, SPX marginally broke above the 6/19/20 high at 3153 and immediately turned down. This is a clear rejection of the zone just above 3153 and implies strong resistance. Subsequently the SPX traded down for most of the day - another bearish signal. The SPX from its post crash high has formed an...
Momentum and sentiment indicators imply the SPX sometime later in 2020 could at least reach the all-time high of 3393. Currently there are three alternate bullish Elliott wave counts for the SPX. Illustrated is the bullish count with the largest near term downside potential. If within the next 4 to 6 trading days the SPX breaks below 2965 it could continue to...
On 6/5/20 bears of US stocks may have been coughing up blood. The week before saw chaos in the streets of many US cities. The prior US jobs report was one of the most bearish since the Great Depression. It seemed like an ideal time to go short US stocks. Surprisingly the report was much better than expected. This report wasn't a surprise to those who have...
We could be witnessing one of the most powerful stock market rallies in history and the trend could continue for several months. The supposed Intermediate degree wave (2) was shallow and brief during a seasonally bearish time zone. The subsequent rally off the wave (2) bottom at 2766 has also happened during the seasonally bearish time. For several days I've...
Since the 03/23/20 SPX bottom there have been powerful bullish momentum and sentiment signals. Please see my SPX posts since the crash bottom on 03/23/20. Recently the weekly MACD had a bullish crossover suggesting several more months of rally. Today 05/18/20 the SPX gave additional bullish signals. The rally up from the 03/23/20 bottom took the form of a very...
May is a bearish month for US stocks and on cue the SPX post crash rally topped on 4/29/20. After its initial decline a double top was formed on 5/11/20. The next wave down only exceeded the first bottom by a small amount. Even in a bearish time zone the bulls are fighting back strong. As of 5/15/20 the SPX is only down 3% from its 4/29/20 peak. So far the...
For the first time since January 2019 the weekly MACD has had a bullish crossover. Please see my 1/31/19 SPX post "Could the US Stock Market be in a Melt Up?" The current signal implies several more months of SPX upside action. For the bears that are focusing on just one supposed bearish price pattern should expand their horizons. This current weekly MACD...
Today- 5/11/20 with the SPX opening 30 points below the 5/8/20 high it appeared that the next wave down of Intermediate wave (2) may have begun. Ten minutes after the open, the Nasdaq Composite had retraced about 80% of its over the weekend drop, a strong hint of more upside to come, Later in the day the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made a new post crash rally high....
My 05-02-20 SPX and TSLA post noted that wave (2) down of the post crash rally may have begun. Since then the NDX and IXIC have made new post crash rally highs. That these two indices could continue to make new rally highs in a seasonally bearish month is additional evidence that the broader trend is likely up, and may continue for several more months. On...
The SPX appears to have completed an Elliott - Five wave pattern from its March 23, 2020 bottom. The 4/30/20 SPX high was just beyond a Fib .618 retrace of the crash and in the area of over head resistance - this is the supposed wave"B" up within the decline from the February 2020 all-time high. TSLA has a very clear five wave pattern up from its March 18 bottom...
My 12/28/19 DJI post had a time forecast for a significant turn sometime in 2021. My 03/26/20 SPX post noted an important bottom in place on 03/23/20 and a super bullish rally underway. Since then US stocks have had a mind boggling rally, retracing more than 50% of the crash in just a few weeks. There could be more mind boggling upside to come. In momentum...