Hi All I know its the end of the world - again. The Corona virus is creating havoc and interest rates could soon be at zero. Please see what happened the last time there was a crash in interest rates. After the crash a big move up. Then it took years before the crash low was broken. Mark
This is the long term Elliott wave count for the DAX. If correct it implies a multi-year bear market may have begun. Mark
Today before the SPX open 3/9/20 a Full moon day, I posted SPX support at 2750. This was based on Point & Figure support at 2750 Fib support at 2746 Chart support at 2728. The SPX closed at the Fib support 2746 just 4 points below Point & Figure support. Intra day low was 2734 just 6 points from chart support. I needed to see how SHCOMP traded today. As I...
Watch for possible important SPX bottom near 2750. More commentary after 3/9/20 close. Also 3/9/20 is Full moon. Mark
My prior Gold posts focused on evidence dealing only with Gold. There's additional bearish evidence from the other precious metals and XAU - Gold/Silver mining stocks. In a healthy bull market all precious metals and XAU make new highs at the same time. After the metals major bottom in 2015 the metals and XAU made new rally highs in July 2016. Golds 2/28/20 top...
AAPL's amazingly clear text book Elliott wave count extends even down to the 30-minute time scale. In bull markets you want to buy stocks stronger than the general market. The daily chart shows AAPL only retraced to its December 2019 bottom. The SPX on its recent drop declined to its October 2019 bottom. The SPX retraced over 80% of its post 02/28/20...
AAPL recent decline brought it down just below a .382 retrace of the rally from late December 2018 to February 2020. Additionally the 02/28/20 bottom was at 256.37 just .08 above the 12/03/19 - 256.29 bottom. Bottoming very close to important Fib and chart level implies powerful support. AAPL is forming the Elliott wave count that was in place for the SPX and...
Elliott wave analysis can be subjective. My last two posts illustrate this point, there can and usually are both bullish and bearish counts at any time scale. How can you differentiate which is the superior count? Examine the weight of evidence from the other three market dimensions; time, sentiment and, momentum. Time dimension. US stocks are seasonally...
The DJI rally from December 2018 to February 2020 is very choppy with wave overlap. I noted several time during 2019 that the rally could be the first wave of an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle. In this structure all five waves subdivide into three waves or a combination of three waves. In this case Minor wave "1" subdivided into a double Zigzag. If this...
For clarity this post will be in two parts. Part two will have the bullish Elliott wave count. I normally use the SPX for Elliott wave analysis. In this situation because of Fibonacci relationships between sub waves, DJI is a better index. The bearish count implies the secular bull market that began in March 2009 is complete and that a multi year bear market has...
Wow what a big down day! Not stocks - Gold, which was down more on 2/28/20 than any of the US stock indices. My 2/24/20 GLD post noted Gold/GLD could have a spike top near the new moon on 02/23/20, since then in spite of the virus panic Gold is down. The crowd buying into this "safe haven" got burned. High probability of more downside in the coming...
My primary Elliott wave count that was illustrated in my prior SPX Elliott wave post has been eliminated with today's SPX move below 3028 which was a supposed wave "1" up. While the primary count is no longer valid, the case for a continuing bull market is still the most likely scenario. This is based upon the bullish momentum and seasonal patterns discussed in...
Since the recent sell off in US stocks, many members on Trading View have speculated the virus news could trigger a much larger decline. This is similar to early 2018 when news of the trade war was expected to cause the US economy to go into a recession and stocks into a bear market. That forecast didn't workout. The news to focus on comes from the markets...
Daily RSI and Stochastic are nearing the oversold zone. A .618 retrace of the rally from 2855 to 3393 is at 3061.30 Minor wave "2" decline was 205.90 points x 1.618 = 333.10 SPX all-time high 3393.50 - 333.10 = 3060.40 almost an exact hit of the larger Fibonacci coordinate. Two Fib points very close together represent powerful support. SPX could reach this...
ON 2/24/20 the SPX may have completed Minor wave "4" at the exact same price level 3214.70 as the bottom made on 1/321/20. Typically wave "fours" bottom in the area of fourth waves of one degree lower. In this case Minor wave "4" appears to have bottomed at the Minute wave "iv" low. Minor wave "4" is close to equal with the supposed Minor wave "2". This is a...
The daily VIX on 2/24/20 had what could its largest gap up in history. The VIX was completely outside the upper Bollinger Band with the VIX RSI at the same levels reached at the December 2018 and August 2019 bottoms. High probability the SPX bottom could be in place. Mark
Today 2/24/20 TYX - 30 year US Interest rates made a new low for the secular bear market that began in 1981. This low was unconfirmed by 10, and 5 year rates. TNX - 10 year interest rates bottomed 1 tick above the major bottom made in July 2016, also close to a new moon. Daily RSI has a significant bullish divergence. The daily TNX bar was completely outside the...
Moving completely above the upper Bollinger Band is probably the strongest possible sell signal. Its the signature of a panic climax and market upside exhaustion. Today 02/24/20 GLD moved completely beyond the daily Bollinger Band, one day after a New moon, with a daily RSI bearish divergence, Gold Commercials have their largest short interest in more than twenty...