This is the first post of four projecting what could be a major SPX top at 3050 sometime in May 2018. Please read all four posts to get a complete picture. My March 30, 2018 post speculated that the SPX may have completed a five wave Elliott Wave Horizontal Triangle on March 28, 2018. Sometimes Horizontal Triangles can expand to nine wave patterns. This could...
Just after the SPX 3/23/18 bottom I posted that there were many bullish signal indicating a bottom could be in place. I also noted that the strongest signal came from the CBOE Put/Call ratio. Note on this chart that whenever the Put/Call ratio decisively exceeded the 1.40 level it was a great time to go long the SPX. I think there's a very high probability the...
Sometime within an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle wave "d" and "e" are much smaller in proportion to waves "a", "b", and "c". This happens frequently on an intraday scale, there's strong evidence that this may have happened with the SPX Horizontal Triangle forming since 1/26/18. From the 3/23/18 bottom the SPX rallied in three waves and then declined in three...
The powerful move up for US stocks on 3/26/18 strongly implies that the low of what could be wave "C" of a developing Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle is in place. A move below the SPX low on 3/23/18 will eliminate the wave count. The supposed wave "C" was .618 of wave "A". If wave "D" is .618 of "B" this targets SPX 2752 as a top for wave "D" The declining...
This is a Green Alert - Meaning bullish- go long US stocks. My last SPX post noted powerful support at SPX 2699 to 2706. It takes powerful moves to break power support and that's exactly what happened on 3/22/18 and 3/23/18 The SPX is now at the next support in which the supposed wave "c" down is .618 of the supposed wave "a" down. Several weeks ago after the...
The DAX is nearing a .382 retrace of the bull market from early 2016 with double bullish divergences on both the RSI and MACD. An important intermediate bottom could be in place or in place on 3/26/18. I will have an updated SPX wave count on 3/25/18. Mark
DAX could be near a very important bottom. Updated daily DAX in my next post will have details. Mark
There was a Fibonacci time cycle of 34 trading days from the SPX all time high due on 3/19/18 There was a New moon on 3/17/18 and Vernal Equinox on 3/20/18, this is a similar to the set up of the SPX Brexit bottom made on 6/27/16. Today the SPX bottomed 5 points below the powerful support zone illustrated in my previous post. You always have leeway around Fib...
In my 3/17/18 post I speculated that the DJI could be forming a Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle. The SPX from the 2/9/18 mini crash bottom appears to have a different pattern, and forming a series of "ones" and "twos" to the upside. Currently in the second wave "two" down. Very strong Fibonacci evidence indicates the SPX could find powerful support in the...
Just after the early February 2018 mini crash I posted that a Elliott wave - Horizontal wave "4" could be forming. Its possible the DJI has completed this pattern. Many times three will be Fibonacci ratios between alternating waves of a Horizontal Triangle. These are the ratios among the wave of the current supposed Horizontal Triangle. c - 1582.60/a - 3249.80 =...
This week I discovered that there could be SPX resistance at the declining trend line near prior chart resistance at the SPX 2757 area, illustrated in my prior post Before the SPX open on 3/9/18 it appeared the SPX was headed into this area and I expected a near term peak. Unfortunately I did not examine the 15 minute RSI which was at its highest point since...
US stock futures up on jobs report. There could be a pause at chart and declining trend line resistance around 2757. If top in that area - decline could last only until 3/19/18. I will have more details in my next post. Mark
The reason for the updated wave count comes from Fibonacci analysis. The February 9, 2018 SPX bottom was very close to a .382 retrace of the rally from the SPX bottom made in June 2016. Also the supposed Minor Wave 2 - the June 2016 decline is close to .382 of the January - February 2018 decline. I strongly suspect Minor wave 4 could still be under construction...
On 2/2/18 the SPX bottomed near two significant Fibonacci points. A .236 retrace of the rally from August 2017 is at 2764.78 Also equality is a common relationship between waves "two" and "four" Minute wave "II" - boxed was 110.02 subtract this from the SPX high at 2872.09 targets 2762.07 Bottom on 2/2/18 was 2759.97 Also I've recently learned a technique to...
My 1/7/18 SPX post noted a high monthly RSI was bullish for SPX. On 1/26/18 the monthly, weekly, and daily SPX - RSI are all at their highest levels since March of 2009. Seasonal US stock market patterns are bullish until May. I've discover Fibonacci resistance at SPX 3047, more about this in a future post. High probability SPX rises to 3047 area by May...
February 2018 Natural Gas Futures has an interesting double top at 3.32. The daily 200 day SMA is just below this level. If there is a break out above 3.32 - price will also be decisively above the 200 day SMA. A break out above clear resistance could trigger huge buying, quickly moving price higher. 3.70 could be reached in a week. Mark
The SPX for the last few months appears to have been in the most dynamic portion of an Elliott- five wave motive pattern. This is referred to in bull markets as a "Third of a Third Up. This pattern has a very steady move up and the corrections are very shallow. It is also where regardless of time scale where the RSI will achieve its maximum point. As of...
The DJUA Elliott wave count of the recent decline is exceptionally clear. If the count is correct,there could be one more rally for a few days followed by a final decline to new lows and .618 Fibonacci support. Note - Alternate count has wave "C" of an "A-B-C" Zigzag complete at either the 1/12/18 low or to bottomed in the support zone on 1/16/18 - New moon...