This is an update to my 3/23/18 daily DAX post, in which I noted the DAX - based upon Fibonacci and momentum analysis may have bottomed on 3/23/18 or could bottom on 3/26/18. On 3/26/18 the DAX made a marginal new correction low which turned out to be the bottom for a subsequent rally to 13204. The 13204 level is very close to a .786 retracement of the sharp...
My prior posts noted SPX resistance in the 2800 area. This could be hit after the FOMC announcement on 6/13/18 Which is also a new moon - sometimes tops occur on new moons. In Elliott wave analysis there is always a bearish alternate count to bullish counts. Illustrated is one of two possible bearish counts that could be complete at SPX 2800. If necessary I...
First, wait to short SYMC. A good hunter waits for the prey to reach ideal position before attacking. In the case of SYMC this could be late June. On 5/11/18 SYMC released their quarterly earnings and announced that an investigation about items not reported in the annual report. The stock broke through a double bottom in a massive one day plunge. This could...
Not all support/resistance levels are equal. Two or more support/resistance points are stronger than one point, requiring more market force to break through. Usually great market force produces longer and more sustainable rallies/declines. Last week the SPX broke above the big .618 retrace level of the January to February decline. Additionally there was a...
Since mid - May the SPX appears to be building a base. The .618 retracement of the January to February decline is at SPX 2742.44. There's a double top at SPX 2742.10 and 2742.24. A move above this triple zone of resistance could be the start of a powerful multi-day rally. Short term traders could enter long positions - based on SPX related funds or futures above...
Hi all First a thanks and congratulations to fellow trading view member - The_Unwind, who two weeks ago sent me a private message saying Crude Oil could turn in the 72 to 73 area based on a .382 retrace of the entire Crude Oil bear market. A perfect .382 retrace is at 73.30, the high last week on the weekly chart was 72.90. The turn last week came on a...
Typically wave "one" of a standard five wave impulse has a retracement of 60 to 66%. The exception is during a post triangle thrust. In prior posts I've note that the SPX decline from its all -time high was probably an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle. The triangle appears to be complete and a post triangle thrust up could be under construction. The SPX low...
My prior post noted that the SPX probably completed a Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle at the 5/3/18 bottom of 2594. After completion of a Horizontal Triangle there is usually a strong thrust in the direction of the primary trend, which in this case is up. Note that the rally from 2594 has been smooth and steady, which is typical of Elliott impulse waves. If a...
Since March the RUT has been more bullish than the DJIA and SPX. This was a good sign that the US stock market was not in the early phase of a large bear market. Now RUT appears to be just a few trading days from making a new all -time high. Watch the RUT and the declining daily trend line. If the RUT breaches this line it will be one more piece of evidence...
Since early February 2018 I've posted that the SPX could be forming an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. Now in early May there's solid Fibonacci evidence that the SPX Horizontal Triangle could be complete at the bottom made on 5/3/18 at 2594.62 Within a Horizontal Triangle the most common Fibonacci relationships occur between alternate sub waves such as wave...
It appears the SPX is still in a Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from the 1/26/18 all-time high. The rally from the bottom made on 4/2/18 to 4/18/18 looks like a choppy corrective pattern which is what you would expect in a Horizontal Triangle, where the sub waves divide into three wave patterns. Additional proof that what has been forming from 1/26/18 is a...
In over night trading the S&P 500 - June E-mini contract moved up while several Asian stock markets went down. Normally the overnight US stock futures track Asian stocks. What happened in the Hang Seng (HSI) exchange is very interesting. It appears to have been forming an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from 1/29/18 - confirming the SPX pattern. It may have...
Over the last several weeks it has appeared laughable to even suggest going long US stocks. As recently as 4/2/18 it looked like we were at the doorstep of financial crisis. On 4/13/18 the US launched an attack on Syria. There's a possibility the Russians could get involved. Some in the US news media are saying the US president is mentally unstable. Scary times...
The US stock market is seasonally bullish from November to May. Within the current nine year bull market two intermediate tops have occured in May. May 2011 and 2015. The DJI could hold a clue to the termination time for the bull market from 2009. Between January 2000 and March 2009 the DJI formed an Elliott wave Expanding flat correction. The entire correction...
A common relationship within an Elliott five wave pattern is that wave "one" is equal to wave "five" Minor wave 1 up from the SPX bottom at 1810.10 was followed by a Combination wave 2 that exceeded the orthodox peak of wave 1. In this case the measurement is made from the actual peak at SPX 2120.55. The growth rate from SPX 1810.10 to 2120.55 is 17.10% When...
The main Fibonacci coordinate for the forecast of SPX 3050 comes from the bear market October 2007 to March 2009. This decline from 1576.09 to 666.79 was 909.30 points multiplied by 2.618 equals 2380.54 + 666.79 = 3047.33 target top. The decline from 2007 to 2009 also targeted the May 2015 intermediate top. 909.30 points multiplied by 1.618 equals 1471.24 +666.79...
This is the first post of four projecting what could be a major SPX top at 3050 sometime in May 2018. Please read all four posts to get a complete picture. My March 30, 2018 post speculated that the SPX may have completed a five wave Elliott Wave Horizontal Triangle on March 28, 2018. Sometimes Horizontal Triangles can expand to nine wave patterns. This could...
Just after the SPX 3/23/18 bottom I posted that there were many bullish signal indicating a bottom could be in place. I also noted that the strongest signal came from the CBOE Put/Call ratio. Note on this chart that whenever the Put/Call ratio decisively exceeded the 1.40 level it was a great time to go long the SPX. I think there's a very high probability the...