Please see my RUT posts on 7/26/18, 6/21/18 and 5/9/18. Next week RUT could reach the 1740 to 1750 zone,this is where long term and intermediate rising trend lines converge. I still anticipate RUT to make a significant top before the SPX, DJI, and IXIC. In 2000 RUT peaked 2 weeks before the SPX in 2007 RUT made a top 3 months before SPX. If RUT tops next week...
The EEM has bounced off its lower trend line with a daily RSI bullish divergence and bullish Stochastic cross over. It looks like EEM could rally for about two weeks which may coincide with a move up for the DJI and SPX. Mark
In several of my posts I've noted that stocks and stock indices almost always have a bearish RSI divergence at the completion of their bull moves. I've discovered that this phenomenon is present at all time levels from monthly all the way down to the one minute scale. The monthly DJI is a perfect example of using the RSI to discover tops. Every significant peak...
My prior SPX post noted that a bottom could have been made on either 8/10/18 or 8/13/18. The decline lasted a little longer and has not reached the primary price target, but the evidence of a bottom today is stronger than what I noted in the last post. Today the PC ratio reached the highest level since the early February bottom. Additionally the 30 minute RSI...
Fellow Trading View member "The Unwind" has a terrific post about a 3 times short Emerging Market ETF. The Unwind could be on to something big. The weekly Emerging market ETF - EEM has just finished a bounce and appears to have started a new down wave. Weekly Stochastic just had a bearish cross over and the weekly RSI is still not in the over sold zone. The...
In prior SPX posts I've noted there are several possible bullish wave counts, this post illustrates yet another alternate count. I believe the SPX has a very good chance to make a new all-time high before the end of August 2018. The recent SPX high at 2863 did have a bearish divergence on the daily RSI, it was not confirmed by the 60 minute RSI which reached its...
Normally when analyzing the US stock market my focus is on the SPX which usually has the clearest Elliott wave patterns. From the SPX January 2018 top, there are three different ways to count what appears to be a completed Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) from January has a much clearer wave count. The IXIC appears to be forming...
FB low on 7/27/18 was 173.00 this split the difference between two important Fibonacci points. A .236 retrace of the FB entire bull market is at 171.17 A .618 retrace of the rally from its last correction low is a 175.61 This implies very strong support. A break below 168.00 could be very bearish. Bulls should keep a close stop. A bounce may only last two or...
There is an alternate wave count for the SPX that came into play on 7/27/18. Most of the time after the conclusion of a Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle there is a powerful thrust in the direction of the main trend. The subsequent rally after the early May bottom has not been powerful. If there's not a powerful thrust after the Horizontal Triangle, then a...
My recent posts on GLD focused on the dimensions of Momentum and Price. This post focus is on the Time dimension. The metals markets will sometimes have significant turns at Lunar and Solar Eclipses. 7/27/18 there will be a total Lunar Eclipse. If GLD can make a marginal new low this could be a fantastic buying opportunity. Mark
In my June 21st post it appeared that the RUT could have made a significant top. Since then RUT has been basing and looks like it may have completed anonther Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. If so RUT could make a new all-time high in just a few days perhaps even on 7/27/18. I still believe RUT will make a significant top prior to the SPX. My long term SPX...
My previous post focused just on the Momentum dimension for GLD. This post explores both the Momentum and Price dimensions. GLD from its 12/17/15 bottom could be forming a complex Elliott wave pattern. The 7/6/16 top - labeled (A) could be the first Zigzag of a developing Double Zigzag rally. The developing wave (B) or (X) could be taking the form of an...
There are four market dimensions, Price, Time, Sentiment, and Momentum. This post deals just with the Momentum dimension. Weekly RSI and Stochastics for GLD are both in the area that have previously lead to bottoms. GLD could be within one or two weeks of a bottom. Mark
There could be a time relationship between the SPX 1990 to 2000 bull market with the bull market that began in 2009. The 1990 to 2000 bull market was 3453 days adding this to the start day of the bull market that began on 3/6/09 targets 8/19/18 a Sunday. The nearest trading day is 8/20/18. Note the bullish Stochastic cross over. Important turns have occured...
My long term SPX forecast top remains at 3050 probably some time in August 2018. Update on long term time forecast will be posted soon. The reasons for the wave count change are. 1) The proportion of the supposed cycle wave "4" - boxed is too large to be a wave four correction of the rally from February 2016. 2) There is a Fibonacci relationship between the...
First congratulations to Trading View member brchart, who on June 28th commented on my SPX post that the SPX June 13th top may have been wave "d" of a still developing Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from the January 2018 peak. Great work! This could be what's happening in the SPX. What makes this count a strong probability is the 30 minute P/C ratio. In an...
There are a cluster of factors indicating very strong support at SPX 2668 to 2683. 1) A 50% retrace of the rally from 5/3/18 is at 2672.64. 2) Rising trend line is near 2668. 3) The 200 day SMA is near 2670. 4) Chart support - 5/29/18 bottom at 2676.81. 5) Post Horizontal Triangle target at 2682.48 - Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from 6/25/18 to 7/3/18. The...
Market analysis is not just the one dimension of price patterns. There are four dimensions, Price, Time, Sentiment and Momentum. Today 6/28/18 there were strong signals from the dimensions of Sentiment and Time that may have signaled a bottom for the SPX. Sentiment: Note that today the Put/Call ratio has reached the same level that it was at durning the May 3rd...