Long to 1.4100, stop at 1.3781
Today's intraday reversal has been a rare occurrence since early Summer 2015. The move lower has taken oil below the bearish trendline. We're seeing some consolidation in the 37ish range. Look for the next leg lower to 33.
Sentiment is awful, there's no earnings info for another month, and the chart looks disastrous. Appears like a perfect set-up for a contrarian trade. We're watching Jun 600 calls, but we're not touching them until the stock tests the 470-472 level. With IV at a new 52 week high today, the calls are just too expensive and there's still room for another ~$20 lower...
Look for a bounce off the trendline and another leg to the upside. Will watch to re-short around 1.0600.
$MCD is powering through resistance at the upper bound of its bull channel from late October. A close above 120.10 is very bullish. I'm still targeting 122 with some JAN 120 calls.
Crude is showing some strength today on what feels like shorts' fatigue. If we end up closing below 38, I'll be adding to my puts, targeting 33. With light volume and no real demand data releases scheduled in the upcoming week, I still see room on both the technical and fundamental front for a move lower.
NTSE testing the top end of this consolidation range, above 186, which coincides with the mid-line of its current bull channel. Targeting the 27% fibonacci extension at 198. Stop at 182.
Watching 107.75 to enter with a target at the 27% fibonacci extension at 111.50. Stop at 106.
MCD is testing resistance at 120, which coincides with the 27% fibonacci extension as well as the upper-bound of its bull channel. We're targeting the 122 level for an exit.
We've been watching SRPT consolidate for a few weeks now between the 35 fib extension support level and 38 resistance level. We've been building our position with $40 calls, adding on drops into the 35 area. Yesterday, we saw the stock top 38 on the open only to end the day down +4%. With this morning's announcement, we gain a timetable for risk, which makes it's...
Asymmetrical risk still exists to the upside, but the price action the last few days is screaming for another leg lower. We short to $33 with a very tight stop to keep risk/reward > 3:1.
We're seeing consolidation forming above 34.88, my entry point from last week. Today's 5% decline doesn't seem completely out of line, given today's tape and broad selling. The 35 handle held, and today's lows stayed above last week's lows. I'm using today to buy more and still targeting 42.00.
Full Thoughts: wordpress.com When conviction is super high, trades get crowded and markets get one-sided. Um, remember the 5+ sigma move in EUR/USD post Draghi's disappointment, last week? One-sided markets offer great opportunities for asymmetrical risk. Yes, longs got burned a la Draghi, but the market still sees global monetary policy divergence as a stedfast...
We've been patient to wait for consolidation below the 37.50 level. Today, we saw the stock trade down to 34.84 and test the fib extension support at 34.88. We've gone long Jan 40 calls with a stop below 33.90.
Waiting for the stock to pull back into the 34.88 level (fib extension) before retesting resistance beginning at 37.50. Ultimately, I'm looking for a re-test of 41.97 highs and a pop above 60 on positive Adcomm news in late January.
We're seeing a symmetrical triangle forming on the daily here with two consecutive spinning tops from last week and two consecutive dojis yesterday and today. We're clearly in a consolidation zone with indecision running high.
Post-FOMC minutes we saw some short-covering that took Euro up to the top of its prior consolidation zone above 1.0750. Friday saw a dose of reality return to the trade after Draghi reminded traders that he and the rest of the governing council are fully committed to an even weaker Euro. Draghi understands December's bar is quite high and I believe he is fully...
Post-FOMC minutes we saw some short-covering that took Euro up to the top of its prior consolidation zone above 1.0750. Friday saw a dose of reality return to the trade after Draghi reminded traders that he and the rest of the governing council are fully committed to an even weaker Euro. Draghi understands December's bar is quite high and I believe he is fully...