AUDUSD - Long - Bearish trend losing momentum
GBPUSD - Short - The trend is your friend
NZDUSD - Neutral - Consolidating ahead of a potential bullish move
USDCHF - Long - Exiting consolidation
USDJPY - Neutral - BOJ won't sit on their hands much longer w/ additional Chinese devaluation
EURUSD - Short - below 50dma USDJPY - Neutral - BOJ won't sit on their hands much longer w/ additional Chinese devaluation USDCHF - Long - Exiting consolidation NZDUSD - Neutral - Consolidating ahead of a potential bullish move GBPUSD - Short - The trend is your friend AUDUSD - Long - Bearish trend losing momentum USDCAD - Long - Trend is definitely your friend...
Call me crazy, but I'm not totally sold on a oil bounce here. Watch for 8am and 9am moves that violate bearish trendline resistance here. Otherwise, I see no reason to be giddy about a mere 2% overnight move to upside on zero news. Sitting short and cautious. Still looking for 29.00 - 28.50.
In full disclosure, my BTCUSD position is a long-term one. I still expect further devaluation of the Yuan in the short-term, which is bullish for BTCUSD. Yesterday's after-market move caught me a bit by surprise. I think the bull/bear arbiter line will be at 422.5.
Oil has been getting pummeled in 2016. Yesterday and today we saw some major technical damage with closes below the 31.11 fibonacci extension from last summer's local low. With today's +2% decline, we're firmly in no-man's land and due for a technical bounce. There's some monthly support b/w 29 and 28.25, and a new set of fib extensions down at 26.31 and 24.14....
I called the 1/7 breakout up to 465, exactly! Unfortunately, it came much quicker than expected and I didn't get a chance to take profits. So I'm still 100% long. We've seen some colidation back down to the 440 level. Overnight and into today, we saw a sustained breach of the bearish trendline from the 465 high. This looks bullish to me and with my expectation for...
Oil and spooz are still trading with a positive feedback relationship. Oil down = spooz down = oil down more, and on and on. US equities are certainly oversold, but I think we need a sustained bounce in crude to see buyers show up in US equities markets. Save for some Canadian econ data, we're pretty light today on the macro front. Oil has clearly violated the...
Oil still drives SPX in a positive feedback loop. Oil has been trading horribly since the the Chinese fixing last night and has continued to drift firmly lower, below bearish trendline support. This doesn't look to abate anytime soon. With SPX below 1938 fib extension, 1917 is next level of support from August's decline and subsequent recovery. Longer term I see...
We saw BTC test bullish trendline support twice yesterday and it clearly held. Watch for sustained strength above 453 to confirm next leg higher to 465.
A close below 32.98 will bring in 31.11 into play in the immediate term. Unless trend reverses there, longer term, 30 and 25 are the next major support levels. People have tried to call the bottom and they continue to get it wrong. 16 year old support levels break hard. Use your imagination and think outside of the realm of possibilities and you'll likely be...
Still long BTCUSD. No major changes in investment thesis. Watch out for some tradeable resistance in the ~440 range.
Look at that trend breach! I've been calling for it for a while and tonight's Yuan setting looks to be the catalyst.
Quick short here with CMG loosing key support at 472. That gap from Oct 2013 at 447.65 is just screaming for attention! Look to short below 472, but after a potential bounce tomorrow off of today's broader market oversold levels. Target at 447.65. Keep your stop at 472 for Risk/Reward of 1.87x. CMG Calls are trading at a new 52W high IV, again! Consider...