Last week's price action supports two different narratives for where we can expect oil is headed. Bull: The first says oil is consolidating and building a base from which to bounce higher. Since 11/13, oil has closed 3 times with a 40 handle, yet failed to close below 40.46, the 76.4% fib retracement from Aug's low to high, and bounced both times it dipped into...
My take is no. I think there was some strong USD selling in Asia that got a bit carried away. Watch for 1.0667, the 50% retracement was guidance. If we bounce there, I might have to re-evaluate my short over the short-term.
I think the algos and the market got the Fed minutes wrong. The minutes give elevated importance to EVERY opinion. "Some participants", "many participants", etc. are all too vague to really gauge the breadth of consensus for any particular statement/sentiment. Roll-call votes aren't taken after every statement is made. Members likely make introductory statements -...
It's always a good idea to zoom out and remember the big picture. Zoomed out, this just looks ugly. Definitely, NOT bullish.
Very boring day in crude. Into the NYMEX close, 40.60 held three times, on the downside. An unexpected headline draw from API - despite, a 1.5mm build at Cushing, led a moderate bounce higher after-hours. The pre-NYMEX close high has kept a lid on the move ~41.12. Yesterday's fake reversal, which felt comparatively weak versus other oversold spikes higher, coupled...
In Tuesday's session we saw Euro take out the 1.0660 support level it's been flirting with since 11/10 after having broken out of last week's consolidation zone. Today's support breach confirms the downtrend. Besides the psychologically "important" level of 1.0600, it's pretty smooth sailing down to 1.0500. We'll run into a fib extension at 1.0551, where we'll...
In Tuesday's session we saw Euro take out the 1.0660 support level it's been flirting with since 11/10 after having broken out of last week's consolidation zone. Today's support breach confirms the downtrend. Besides the psychologically "important" level of 1.0600, it's pretty smooth sailing down to 1.0500. We'll run into a fib extension at 1.0551, where we'll...
Oil's reversal yesterday didn't feel convincing. Normally we see the $*&t hit the fan and an explosion higher. The data and overnight price action has been weak and this morning's move lower at the open isn't constructive for the bull case. Oil has defined convention since last November and it wouldn't surprise me to see it continue to do so, just as "everybody"...
We've seen a pattern of extreme moves higher from oversold conditions. Oil is already up 2% overnight and could be preparing to rip higher. The 44 level coincides with a few resistance levels. I bought some 43 calls last night, just in case.
We're seeing lots of strength in the dollar index, which is sitting at resistance from last week. Eur is also sitting on bullish trendline support. I don't believe that support will hold. Continue shorting through the prior support zone of 1.0660 through to 1.05. Overnight Euro CPI data should be weak and I think this will be our next opportunity for a fresh leg lower.
Yes, it does. I'm closing the bulk of my puts at 41.00, this afternoon. 41.81 has held nicely today but is failing into the NYMEX close. I'm going to wait a day and look to open some 43 calls for a bounce, ahead of crude futures options expiration on Tuesday.
Eur has had a wild day today. We saw its typical overnight strength until Draghi's prepared remarks were released just after 3:20am EST. A few key quotes sparked a 55bp drop to below 1.07: "inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened" "Signs of a sustained turnaround in core inflation have somewhat weakened" "sustained normalisation of inflation could take...
Early this morning, we saw oil trade lower and attempt a run at the 50% fib retracement at 43.52. As the NYMEX oil pit opened at 9am we saw a violent rejection of a 43 handle and oil traded higher for the rest of the session. API data indicated a much larger than expected build in total crude and Cushing stockpiles, which immediately sent oil down 37 cents. As we...
Today, Euro fell just 1.4bps short of testing another critical support level on really no news. While RSI is at 8 month lows, the technicals still support momentum to the downside. Draghi is speaking Wednesday morning. On Thursday, we have a slew of EZ inflation and production data followed by speeches from 4 Fed-heads - Bullard (Hawk), Lacker (Hawk), Evans (Dove)...
Overnight we saw some positive trade balance data out of Germany, with exports rising 0.5% higher than consensus to 2.6% yoy and imports rising much higher than expected to 3.6% vs. an estimated 0.9%. Euro rallied throughout most of the European session, until 8am when Reuters published an article claiming the ECB was considering a much larger deposit rate cut....
Yesterday, PANW closed below its 200DMA for the 7th time since August's market correction. Prior to August, the last time the stock closed below its 200DMA was December 2013!! That speaks to just how significant a reversal in sentiment we've seen. That said, short interest has steadily declined. So while investors may not want to own the stock - it's expensive,...
Since rumours that Micron was involved in takeover discussion ended, the stock has lost its momentum. The Street's attack on Einhorn's holdings hasn't helped either. Yesterday, the stock lost the 16 support level and looks to be headed lower. Until there's a catalyst, I think the stock is range-bound between 14 and 16.
Oil had no trouble falling through $45 this morning on a stronger dollar and concerns of a higher discount rate. $44 has been one of those arbiter pricing levels for future trend determination. Spikes off of $44 have been violent. $45.00 looks to be solid resistance to the upside. Below $44.00, look at the prior low in the region $43.05. Macro story still...