Yesterday's powerful move up through September's bearish resistance trendline looks to have been technically driven and out of steam. Earlier this morning, oil trade up to August's high of 49.30 and has since pulled back below fib ext of 49.51. If we see a breakout above 49.64, I'd expect continued upward strength to the 61.8% retracement at 52.44. Otherwise, and...
EUR/USD needs to break down below 50% retracement at 1.1087 for a swift move towards 1.0938 on stronger than expected US hourly earnings. I think you stay short.
Analysis to come...
In short: US macro data just too damn strong to support ~10 years at zero Fed will hike in September or the market will move the yield curve on its own Euro is a funding currency and as a risk barometer will depreciate on broader "risk-on" sentiment ECB uncomfortable with recent Euro appreciation to near 2015 highs at 1.17ish - trotting out Peter Praet to...
The weaker dollar hasn't seemed to deter further CAD weakness as oil has continued its march lower. On Friday we saw CAD close above fib extension resistance at 1.3168. Watch for a breakout through a resistance band from 1.3190 to 1.3200. That should push CAD to 1.3400.
Hmmm...coincidence? Unlikely. With a 55% relative premium to crude, looks like EEM could have PLENTY of room left to fall. On first glance, looks like Dec 20 puts might be a possibility. Will investigate this weekend.
Given the massive and unexpected DOE inventory build this morning, I thought it would be worth highlighting this chart again. If we take oil's Fed/Mar moves: Up +10.65 (+24.45%) and Down -11.62 (-24.44%) and apply them to the March 18th low, we arrive at a dollar move target of 40.75 and a percentage move target of 36.80. Both are nice in range with a large...
Given the massive and unexpected DOE inventory build this morning, I thought it would be worth highlighting this chart again. If we take oil's Fed/Mar moves: Up +10.65 (+24.45%) and Down -11.62 (-24.44%) and apply them to the March 18th low, we arrive at a dollar move target of 40.75 and a percentage move target of 36.80. Both are nice in range with a large...
Broke below trend support on lower than expected EIA inventory numbers, concerns the world is falling apart. Look for oil to resume avg decline day trend (orange line) and 42.40 by NYMEX close.
As predicted, 44.20 acted as strong support. Oil grinded lower all day, tested 44.20 twice, and bounced higher. My gut says tomorrow we continue the bounce up to 45 and possibly 45.33. Watch the overnight price action to see if you can spot a trend. This is important b/c an avg down day will takes us through 44.20, well into the pause zone b/w 44.20 and 43.75....
Sell everything! OK. I'll buy your PANW. Reversal confirmation on the 3m. Way too quick move down. Expecting to see the same late-day broad-market rally as yesterday.
Lately, BABA has traded as a proxy for A Shares w/ 0.83 correlation over the past 60 trading days. So the macro story for BABA is just the macro story for China, and the macro story for China is easy! Three numbers: $800bn, 4.25%, $3.73tr. $800bn, as in the CSFC's estimated credit line for propping up the Chinese stock market as a margin lending lender...
On the weekly chart, technicals support a move up to $239, or ~14%. The daily shows a potential pause zone b/w 219.75 and 220.00. From a macro perspective, Obama's dealings with Iran are being enabled because of US armorment "gifts" to regional partners. While I won't opine on whether a deal is good or bad, a deal will force the Middle East to beef up their...
I'm still bearish on oil, and expect to see a full 100% retracement of March's move higher. Moveover, nothing has changed on a fundamental basis that doesn't support new lows below 42. That said, there's a resistance zone b/w 44.18 and 43.76 and there's been a fairly consistent pattern in the duration of consecutive down days. Since 6/24, which marked the last...
Talk about rejection! Today we saw some crazy dollar strength. As of 3pm, the dollar had made a 100% retracement or 214 bps round-trip from this morning's ECI drop. The market gave a clear signal that it believes - or rather, more likely, wants , a Fed rate hike. That's all that matters, folks. Oil is heading lower. What's more, the technicals strongly support...
Since the beginning of the year we've seen a marked reduction in oil volatility, on both an absolute and relative basis. Could we be poised for a move higher in the weeks ahead?
Almost! We almost saw oil break down through the 76.4% fib retracement and solid support on the week at 46.86. Instead, we saw the last NYMEX trade close with a 47 handle. Expect to see the futures close at the lows of the day today. This brings up a really important decision point for the trajectory of oil. More analysis to come, shortly. Looking forward to the...
While I'm certainly not a conspiracy theorist, something just seems very askew with the ECI print we received this morning. From overnight lows, the Euro had its strongest day of 2015 off the back of the release. While there's no official rumour , I say: "sell the rumour, buy the news!" Look for a move back down to the 50% retracement level at 1.1020ish.