FX trends rarely reverse overnight. We've seen marked strengthening in CAD after the BOC opted - incorrectly, to not act last week. I've discussed the need for Canadian QE many times before, and last week's Canadian consumer spending data only further emboldens this call. For an economy that is comparatively rather cautious with leverage, Canadians appear to...
We're back below the consolidation zone from the 2nd week on January without having tested resistance in the 33 area. The bottom of that consolidation zone at 31 should keep a lid on the upside. With having bounced at the 38% fib retracement, this morning, we'll watch for some consolidation before breaking lower and testing the 50% fib retracement at 30.12. I'm...
The 62% retracement was hit. Oil is still a sell on this technical bounce and I find the Canadian retail sales numbers very troubling for the Canadian consumer. More to come on that. In the meantime, watch for lower oil and a possible retest of the 62% retracement at 1.4149
The 62% retracement was hit. Oil is still a sell on this technical bounce and I find the Canadian retail sales numbers very troubling for the Canadian consumer. More to come on that. In the meantime, watch for lower oil and a possible retest of the 62% retracement at 1.4149
I don't see yesterday and overnight's "risk-on" rally as the end of the bear market in oil. That said, we need to give respect where it's due: Up 17% in 2 sessions Buyers finally stepped in, and in a big way, at the 9am NYMEX open yesterday No intraday reversal to the downside - this is only the 2nd non-occurence in the last eight trading sessions All of...
Nothing new here. Oil is still king. Until it stabilizes and we see buying strength through the NYMEX open, I don't think you can bet on stronger CAD. We usually see a top in oil during the 8-9am hour. I'll be watching.
Nearly all of the major houses and financial media are calling for a neutered Draghi at today's rate decision and presser. I don't believe he's stirred enough support and I don't believe the outlook has deteriorated enough in Europe to warrant further action. BOC balked, I expect ECB to balk, as well. That said, with such one-sided consensus thinking, there's an...
A la Sandy Weill: while the music is playing, you gotta keep dancing the short oil jig. As I first pointed out on 1/12, , since this summer, intraday reversals in oil have been anecdotally rare. Now we've seen them occur for six of the last seven trading days. Once the NYMEX pits open, literally no marginal buyer exists. Wednesday morning we broke through the...
My BTC position is a long-term long hold. That said, I still track the short-term technicals for opportunistic trading. Tom_killick correctly sounded the alarm to the potential for a large breakdown earlier in January. I expected - and continue to expect - another round of Yuan devaluation, which I believe is bullish for BTC. Needless to say, I was caught offsides...
Another massive move lower overnight, likely a result of dealers propping up the February contract ahead of a massive expiration of $30 puts, yesterday. It's a Friday before a long weekend, I don't see buyers of risk assets showing up in any sustainable force. Think you can continue to fade oil into the next support area b/w 28.50 - 29.00. Looking at the...
Overnight, traders rolled through stops up to and above 1.4500 on a very robust move. The fact that we're seeing weak resistance at the 1.4500 level - aka, there are buyers > 1.4500, leads me to believe this bullish leg isn't over. I think we might drift down to the top of this week's bull channel and bounce higher. Targeting 1.4558.
Oil's bearish trendline has done a good job at keeping a lid on any buying impulses recently. Yesterday, we saw a strong rejection at this resistance. Overnight and this morning, we're seeing some consolidation right below the $31 level. We could see a bullish breach when pit trading opens at 9am. Today is an oil futures options expiration day. These are...
That bearish trendline has done a good job at keeping a lid on any buying impulses recently. Yesterday, we saw a strong rejection at this resistance. Overnight and this morning, we're seeing some consolidation right below the $31 level. We could see a bullish breach when pit trading opens at 9am. Today is an oil futures options expiration day. These are typically...
With the government inventory numbers behind us, a massive build in gasoline inventories, and a headline build, I think all immediately term bullish items are gone. Continue to sell this baby down to monthly support at 29 - 28.50.
I see this trade as almost a no-brainer. We had a strong test of support this morning (~1.4200), which held nicely post-EIA inventory data. Technicals point to some consolidation at the current fib extension at 1.4347ish. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight pull back into the 1.4312 fib extension before heading higher towards 1.4500. The real crux to this...
This morning's government crude oil inventory data prompted a clear bounce off of trendline support. Oil is a slow moving unwind with lower and lower prices ahead of us. Targeting next leg higher in USDCAD at 1.4350.
USDCAD - Long - Trend is definitely your friend here and a bottom in oil is still not it