tokyo stock market ripped higher after the election into a buying climax (BC) on the 10 NOV.
after that a sharp automatic reaction (AR) set up the trading range.
from that low on the 10th NOV market rally to upthrust though the BC key level at 25865
Now price is below that level and retesing the underside of resistance.
Possible that a move down into 24800...
This trading range may turn into a continuation or make a significant top. Either way, there is the possibility that prices will fall into support 11600 level.
EUR/AUD could be primed for a breakout to the upside OR a False break before a finale move down below support 1.6 to form a spring.
I tend to favour the latter optoin but the long side for a breakout is tempting - tight stops though.
If you belive -ve rates are a thing then this trade is not for you. If rates have hit all-time lows then this Wyckoff topping pattern on the 10 year T-note weekly chart makes fundamental sense. Technically it has a lot of work to do to the downside to confirm. Typically Wyckoff tops with Upthrust after distribution (UTAD) resolve swiftly to the downside. Noting...
The downtrend that has been in place since the March 20 high may have concluded, at least temporarily.
the market has moved sideways in a trading range since 31 June
The market is potentially in a back-up move.
Needs to hold > 8.639
My analysis concludes that this market has a topping pattern. This analysis would change if prices exceed 6740. I have initiated by selling at market. Limit order at 6685.
A bullish hikkake pattern formed in both DJIA and S&P 500 on the 9th of June. the Level in the DJIA that the pattern formed is significant resistance turned support opening the door for fresh new all-time highs.
I placed my stop below the low of the false break and place a stop order to enter at the opening price on the 10th. This order was filled overnight.
On the intra-day Charts, I have recognized a potential Wyckoff Spring set up that may serve as a short term continuation. This set has formed at the lower boundary of a much larger Wyckoff base that could be forming on the daily/ weekly.
I viewed the close below support as a potential bear trap (wyckoff spring)
Placed an order to buy stop at 15.189 against 15. Targeting a move above the most recent high.
On the Weekly chart of the USDOLLAR index, I have plotted the components of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern.
IF the analysis is correct, then the US Dollar is about to enter a mark-down phase that should last many months and pull it down to at least the 72.00 level (1.618 Fib extension).
The high may be the top of intermediate wave 4. Looks like a double combination since the selling climax
Expect the market to test the low of the range in an impulsive 5 wave move down into a spring.