My previous posts I was long Facebook at $160 with a target of $175. Intraday FB reached $171 (9/28) but dropped precipitously to $159. Target was not reach but was close. Right now I am neutral because stock has negative news coming out.
Facebook has stabilized over the last few days around $160 a share. The stock has dipped below that price but not much lower. I believe the stock has consolidated at this price and will now trend higher. Overall the stock is in an uptrend.
If you believe in drawing straight lines and making something out of them, than this chart if for you. The Fib extionsions from the 2015 high/2016 low had the market extend to 2335. See my previous posts. If you follow this trend line from top of 2008, than that puts the market top right around 2350. Close to the fib extensions. Also the SPX posted a hangman for...
This may be the time for a reversal. From 2015's peak of 2135 to the subsequent low to 1810, the Fib extension of 161.8 puts the market top at 2335. We were just shy of that today.
The timing is potentially serendipitous for bears. On Tuesday and Wednesday Janet Yellen will speak to congress, and her tone will provide more context for the markets. We shall see.
On Feb. 11, 2016, the S&P 500 put in a low of 1810.
One year later, on February 9, 2016, the S&P 500 records an all time high of 2307.9. This is a 500 pt increase, and a 27.6% return.
At the same time the S&P 500 is showing a rising wedge which has bearish characteristics. However, this market has been very strong.
A hangman can be a bearish sign. Looking, back every time we have posted a hangman candlestick close to the peak of the market, it has usually signaled a short-term top and a reversal has ensued. Be cautious, however, this market has a lot of bullishness left in it. It is unrelenting in the upside.
Today the SPX made a strong come back from the lows of the day to form a hangman. Although the hangman closed positive, and is green, a hangman is generally bearish. This along with the DOJI formed a couple of days ago and the other bearish hangman formed yesterday, coupled with the all-time highs, the market is poised for a more substantial correction.
Target is 2190.
Today the SPX was down 0.60%. Price retraced 50% from the low hit today, as compared to Friday's close, by looking at the intra-day chart.
The SPX logged a Doji candle on Thursday, which usually shows indecision. Given the next day was a down day, the reversal was cemented.
Today the SPX logged a bearish hangman. This, along with the previous doji, confirms...
The Fib extension going to 2305 will be tested most likely tomorrow. Will be interesting to what happens after it is reached.
All metrics show the market is highly overvalued. However, the continued momentum is keeping the market afoot. The VIX is at the lowest since 2007. Play this carefully.
If we break higher, who knows where we will go.
If we meet...
Is 2300 the next top? Based on the major retracement from last year, it looks like the extension will be to 2300. Psychologically investors seem to want that number, given the hubris of the markets today.
Following a similar pattern from the Brexit trade:
It took about 26 trading days before the market dropped lower. If we are following that same path, it will be around February 6th before we drop again.
The blue horizontal lines represent Fib time zones. We are due for a change in direction around the time zones, see previous blue lines on chart, and so a...
Over the last few days the SPX has followed the same path, rise dramatically and then sell off. Each time making a new low and a lower high. Seems to be some indecision in these markets. Possible time for a reversal. Plus on the daily chart we saw RSI divergence from high made 12/9 to high made on 1/9.
I know for quite sometime I have been bearish. Clearly the trend has been higher. I was wrong. I allowed reasoning (high valuations, impending rate hike, uncertainty surrounding new administration, uncertainty with Europe) to cloud my judgement. Don't fight the trend, and more importantly remove any beliefs you have about the market. The market doesn't care what...