stantrader

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Markets Allocation
17 % stocks 83 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 83% | 20 SPY 16% | 4
stantrader stantrader SPX, W,
SPX: SPX Top
150 2 8
SPX, W
SPX Top

If you believe in drawing straight lines and making something out of them, than this chart if for you. The Fib extionsions from the 2015 high/2016 low had the market extend to 2335. See my previous posts. If you follow this trend line from top of 2008, than that puts the market top right around 2350. Close to the fib extensions. Also the SPX posted a hangman for ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, D,
SPX: SPX - Reaching Fib Extension of 2335
146 0 10
SPX, D
SPX - Reaching Fib Extension of 2335

This may be the time for a reversal. From 2015's peak of 2135 to the subsequent low to 1810, the Fib extension of 161.8 puts the market top at 2335. We were just shy of that today. The timing is potentially serendipitous for bears. On Tuesday and Wednesday Janet Yellen will speak to congress, and her tone will provide more context for the markets. We shall see.

stantrader stantrader SPX, D,
SPX: SPX - Happy Anniversary Up 27.6% in a year
59 0 2
SPX, D
SPX - Happy Anniversary Up 27.6% in a year

On Feb. 11, 2016, the S&P 500 put in a low of 1810. One year later, on February 9, 2016, the S&P 500 records an all time high of 2307.9. This is a 500 pt increase, and a 27.6% return. At the same time the S&P 500 is showing a rising wedge which has bearish characteristics. However, this market has been very strong.

stantrader stantrader SPY, D, Long ,
SPY: SPX - Higher?
88 0 2
SPY, D Long
SPX - Higher?

Possible breakout to the upside. Rising wedges usually result in this.

stantrader stantrader SPX, W,
SPX: SPX - Hangman Weekly Chart
56 0 5
SPX, W
SPX - Hangman Weekly Chart

A hangman can be a bearish sign. Looking, back every time we have posted a hangman candlestick close to the peak of the market, it has usually signaled a short-term top and a reversal has ensued. Be cautious, however, this market has a lot of bullishness left in it. It is unrelenting in the upside.

stantrader stantrader SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: SPX
37 0 3
SPX, W Long
SPX

Stay long. No weakness in this market. Every dip is bought.

stantrader stantrader SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX - 2 Bearish Hangmen
64 0 1
SPX, D Short
SPX - 2 Bearish Hangmen

Today the SPX made a strong come back from the lows of the day to form a hangman. Although the hangman closed positive, and is green, a hangman is generally bearish. This along with the DOJI formed a couple of days ago and the other bearish hangman formed yesterday, coupled with the all-time highs, the market is poised for a more substantial correction. Target is ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, D,
SPX: SPX - Bearish Hangman
92 0 4
SPX, D
SPX - Bearish Hangman

Today the SPX was down 0.60%. Price retraced 50% from the low hit today, as compared to Friday's close, by looking at the intra-day chart. The SPX logged a Doji candle on Thursday, which usually shows indecision. Given the next day was a down day, the reversal was cemented. Today the SPX logged a bearish hangman. This, along with the previous doji, confirms ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, D,
SPX: 2305 maybe the end of the road
71 0 1
SPX, D
2305 maybe the end of the road

The Fib extension going to 2305 will be tested most likely tomorrow. Will be interesting to what happens after it is reached. All metrics show the market is highly overvalued. However, the continued momentum is keeping the market afoot. The VIX is at the lowest since 2007. Play this carefully. If we break higher, who knows where we will go. If we meet ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: SPX: 2300 a TOP
110 0 3
SPX, W Long
SPX: 2300 a TOP

Is 2300 the next top? Based on the major retracement from last year, it looks like the extension will be to 2300. Psychologically investors seem to want that number, given the hubris of the markets today.

stantrader stantrader SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX Running out of steam
92 0 2
SPX, D Short
SPX Running out of steam

Following a similar pattern from the Brexit trade: It took about 26 trading days before the market dropped lower. If we are following that same path, it will be around February 6th before we drop again. The blue horizontal lines represent Fib time zones. We are due for a change in direction around the time zones, see previous blue lines on chart, and so a ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, 30, Short ,
SPX: SPX drop tomorrow?
105 2 4
SPX, 30 Short
SPX drop tomorrow?

Over the last few days the SPX has followed the same path, rise dramatically and then sell off. Each time making a new low and a lower high. Seems to be some indecision in these markets. Possible time for a reversal. Plus on the daily chart we saw RSI divergence from high made 12/9 to high made on 1/9.

stantrader stantrader SPY, D,
SPY: SPX - Higher, before lower
180 0 5
SPY, D
SPX - Higher, before lower

I know for quite sometime I have been bearish. Clearly the trend has been higher. I was wrong. I allowed reasoning (high valuations, impending rate hike, uncertainty surrounding new administration, uncertainty with Europe) to cloud my judgement. Don't fight the trend, and more importantly remove any beliefs you have about the market. The market doesn't care what ...

stantrader stantrader SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: SPX - Divergence leads exhaustion, exhaustion leads correction
302 0 10
SPY, D Short
SPX - Divergence leads exhaustion, exhaustion leads correction

We see divergence in the RSI, CCI, and volume on the SPY. I think today's action was simply a retest of the high before trending lower into the Fed meeting. Most likely a retest to 208.

stantrader stantrader SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX - Falling out of Favor
96 0 4
SPX, D Short
SPX - Falling out of Favor

Given the impressive surge since the election the markets have finally begun to relent. Many forecasters anticipate a pullback to 2150 before a larger move above 2214. I disagree. Given the price action going into the highs, there was a lot of indecision along the way (doji, shootingstar, hangman candlesticks = indecision). The optimism supporting the run up ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX - Point of Confluence
177 2 4
SPX, D Short
SPX - Point of Confluence

We have arrived at an interesting intersection. Yesterday's (11/22) high was 2204.8 and today's high was 2204.07, which is what we closed at. Today's candlestick looks strong. However we are entering an interest crossroads where we are hitting the ceiling of a 1.5 year trend line, running into an extremely high PE ratio, an impending rate hike, higher interest ...

stantrader stantrader SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: SPX - Are you tired? The SPX is Tired... hangman?
532 8 14
SPY, D Short
SPX - Are you tired? The SPX is Tired... hangman?

We have hit exhaustion. We finally made it to 2200, and we did it in parabolic form. Similar to the trajectory of a rocket. Today we closed above 2200, but not without a day of wrestling with a bear. We posted a hangman candlestick which usually concludes the end of a trend. Furthermore, volume was very light and below average. Every time we have posted a ...

stantrader stantrader SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX - Sucking in the Bulls
255 5 7
SPX, D Short
SPX - Sucking in the Bulls

It's important to keep in mind that when the market gets to extremes, like it is now (25x PE ratio, 27x Schiller PE ratio, 2x Price to sales ratio, 125% of total GDP,) it's easy to throw up your hands an join them. However, it's important to keep in mind that interest rates are increasing globally. That is very enticing for a money manager. Also, most sectors have ...

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