The writing is on the wall with BTC. We are forming the same supports and resistance as we did four years ago, only at prices an order of magnitude higher. Failure to break up here could be the first step in the final capitulation.
This is a scenario I can see happening with bitcoin throughout the year. Bullish momentum coming out of the symmetrical triangle, followed by a failed A&E double bottom. Then real capitulation coinciding with Mt.Gox reimbursements.
Here I present a scenario that would see BTC reach $1700. This would continue the long term trend on the weekly timeframe and would coincide with historical RSI patterns. It suggests that the final phase of capitulation is yet to come.
This simple moving average strategy can be very effective, especially when the market is erratic. Large downswings can be confirmed when the 10MA crosses the 20MA on the daily timeframe after a big upswing. Using Heikin-Ashi can help confirm the direction and momentum of the move.