tchamoun

tchamoun

I’d like to go short EURGBP. On the 4-hour chart, prices have been holding below the 200 moving average line and it looks like a three-wave correction could’ve ended at 0.8499, especially since it has been followed by a 5-wave decline. Aggressive traders could short here with a tight stop above 0.8500, while conservative traders could wait for a clear confirmation...

tchamoun

According to my EW count, more weakness could be on the horizon for the U.S Dollar. Indeed, the daily count suggests that waves 1 and 2 of the higher degree third wave have finished and we are in the beginning of a large third wave decline that would take the index below 100.00. A break above 107.34 would negate this view, so selling here with a stop above this...

tchamoun

Looking at the daily chart on the Kiwi, we can clearly see a five-wave advance followed by a three wave decline that retraced 78.6% of the rise, and where the C wave is equal to the A wave in length. Whether the two waves are numbered 1-2 or A-B, the odds now favour another 5-wave advance from the previous lows targeting 0.6320/0.6440 at least. A break back below...

tchamoun

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like more weakness should be seen on the 10Y yields after the end of the corrective wave B (or wave 2). Since that top at 4.74%, we have seen a five wave decline which was followed by a three wave advance (it could still be developing). I believe the 5-wave decline was wave 1 of a 5-wave impulsive decline that could take...

tchamoun Updated 

XOM appears to be trading in the 5th wave of a five-wave advance. The 4th wave looks over at 114.10 after having retraced 38.2% of the previous 3rd wave. We can buy here, with a stop below the aforementioned support targeting at least 123.75. For conservative traders, we can wait for a confirmed move above 121.87 to enter with a tighter stop loss.

tchamoun

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we can see that the index is in the middle of a strong impulsive wave that started in late 2022. We are now trading towards the end of the third wave, which will be followed by a 4th wave correction and a final 5th impulsive wave. The third wave should end between 40,500 and 41,500, and the correction that follows should reach...

tchamoun

Fundamental Analysis: Looking ahead to next year, with Swiss consumer prices now back below 2% (the SNB is the only major central bank currently hitting its inflation target), the need for the central bank to keep buying Francs will diminish. In addition, despite the renewed talks about rate cuts in the major economies, starting with the U.S Federal Reserve, the...

tchamoun

After a five-wave rally a three-wave decline on the 15-min chart, we favor further upside on the Aussie, targeting 0.6606 and 0.6617 with a stop loss below 0.6565, the low of day.

tchamoun

Since March 2020, the 10-year U.S Treasury yields have been rising, reaching a high of 5.021% last month. According to Elliott Wave Analysis, this advance seems to have ended at that high and a decline is underway, with targets of 3.9% and 3.23%. Keep in mind that lower yields could translate to a lower U.S Dollar as well

tchamoun

The index is now trading in wave (v) of 3, which could end around 16,300/16,500. This will be followed by another correction and rally to end the move, taking the index easily above the all-time highs of 16764.86. The break out of the consolidation phase that was contained by parallel lines and can be seen in both charts was the signal that the uptrend resumed.

tchamoun

Looking at the daily chart on XAUUSD, I believe that the precious metal has started the C-Wave of an A-B-C correction after the completion of a triangle in the B-wave. This leg lower can take us down to 1840/20 or even lower at 1790.00 after which a strong rally will unfold, taking Gold to new all-time highs

tchamoun

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like NKE could have a nice upward move in the coming days/months after a three-wave decline since February 2023. Not only did the correction almost reach the end of the previous wave 4, we can see an island reversal on the daily chart after the low of 102.69 was reached. As long as we are trading above this level, odds...

tchamoun Updated 

It looks like the GBPAUD ended a five-wave rally yesterday at 1.8493, which should be followed by at least a three wave correction that could take prices to 1.8193 and 1.8000. In addition to the wave-count, there is a clear negative divergence between prices and RSI that confirm our view. A break above 1.8500 will negate this count.

tchamoun

Ever since the 1.1033 high from early February, it seems like the Euro is trading in a complex W-X-Y correction. The 1.0930 level reached last week is the critical point we are looking at. As long as we continue to trade below it, odds favor another run lower which should break below 1.0516, targeting at first 1.0460, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from...

tchamoun

After a 5-wave decline from 95.74 to 90.46, the pair is correcting in a 3-wave pattern. It is not clear whether the correction is over or one more upwards leg is on the cards, but I prefer to play this from the short side as long as we trade below 95.74. A break above this resistance will make us reconsider our count, otherwise we expect a large decline, through...

tchamoun Updated 

Looking at the hourly chart on Gold, I believe that more downside is on the cards as long as we are trading below 1966.00. The pair had a 5-wave down followed by a 3-wave up correction which retraced 78.6% of the down move. A break below 1919.00 will further confirm our view. We are looking for a move below the 1890.00 level hit at the beginning of the week.

tchamoun

This is an example of a head a shoulder pattern that worked to perfection. The two shoulders and the head can be distinguished very easily. We can also see a negative divergence with the RSI at the top of the head, which shows declining momentum. After the break of the neckline, we can see a throwback towards it before the resumption of the down move. Finally, the...

tchamoun

After the big fall since October 2020, the stock could have found a bottom at 73.17, as evidenced by the island reversal candlestick pattern, that was confirmed by an increase in volume with the second gap. Go long with a stop below the 73.17 low for a rebound towards at least 130.00/140.00