tchamoun

tchamoun

Fundamental Analysis: Looking ahead to next year, with Swiss consumer prices now back below 2% (the SNB is the only major central bank currently hitting its inflation target), the need for the central bank to keep buying Francs will diminish. In addition, despite the renewed talks about rate cuts in the major economies, starting with the U.S Federal Reserve, the...

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After a five-wave rally a three-wave decline on the 15-min chart, we favor further upside on the Aussie, targeting 0.6606 and 0.6617 with a stop loss below 0.6565, the low of day.

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Since March 2020, the 10-year U.S Treasury yields have been rising, reaching a high of 5.021% last month. According to Elliott Wave Analysis, this advance seems to have ended at that high and a decline is underway, with targets of 3.9% and 3.23%. Keep in mind that lower yields could translate to a lower U.S Dollar as well

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The index is now trading in wave (v) of 3, which could end around 16,300/16,500. This will be followed by another correction and rally to end the move, taking the index easily above the all-time highs of 16764.86. The break out of the consolidation phase that was contained by parallel lines and can be seen in both charts was the signal that the uptrend resumed.

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Looking at the daily chart on XAUUSD, I believe that the precious metal has started the C-Wave of an A-B-C correction after the completion of a triangle in the B-wave. This leg lower can take us down to 1840/20 or even lower at 1790.00 after which a strong rally will unfold, taking Gold to new all-time highs

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From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like NKE could have a nice upward move in the coming days/months after a three-wave decline since February 2023. Not only did the correction almost reach the end of the previous wave 4, we can see an island reversal on the daily chart after the low of 102.69 was reached. As long as we are trading above this level, odds...

tchamoun Updated 

It looks like the GBPAUD ended a five-wave rally yesterday at 1.8493, which should be followed by at least a three wave correction that could take prices to 1.8193 and 1.8000. In addition to the wave-count, there is a clear negative divergence between prices and RSI that confirm our view. A break above 1.8500 will negate this count.

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Ever since the 1.1033 high from early February, it seems like the Euro is trading in a complex W-X-Y correction. The 1.0930 level reached last week is the critical point we are looking at. As long as we continue to trade below it, odds favor another run lower which should break below 1.0516, targeting at first 1.0460, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from...

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After a 5-wave decline from 95.74 to 90.46, the pair is correcting in a 3-wave pattern. It is not clear whether the correction is over or one more upwards leg is on the cards, but I prefer to play this from the short side as long as we trade below 95.74. A break above this resistance will make us reconsider our count, otherwise we expect a large decline, through...

tchamoun Updated 

Looking at the hourly chart on Gold, I believe that more downside is on the cards as long as we are trading below 1966.00. The pair had a 5-wave down followed by a 3-wave up correction which retraced 78.6% of the down move. A break below 1919.00 will further confirm our view. We are looking for a move below the 1890.00 level hit at the beginning of the week.

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This is an example of a head a shoulder pattern that worked to perfection. The two shoulders and the head can be distinguished very easily. We can also see a negative divergence with the RSI at the top of the head, which shows declining momentum. After the break of the neckline, we can see a throwback towards it before the resumption of the down move. Finally, the...

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After the big fall since October 2020, the stock could have found a bottom at 73.17, as evidenced by the island reversal candlestick pattern, that was confirmed by an increase in volume with the second gap. Go long with a stop below the 73.17 low for a rebound towards at least 130.00/140.00

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Looking at the hourly chart on the EURAUD , the cross looks to have finished a 5-wave advance from 1.4563 to 1.4994 and is now in a corrective mode. We are looking to go long on a pullback inside the rectangle from 1.4870 to 1.4808, for another five-wave advance. We continue to prefer the long side as long as the 1.4563 low is intact for a move back towards...

tchamoun Updated 

The pair has carved out a five wave decline followed by a three wave rally (which could extend a little further). Whether the two big waves are part of an impulsive wave lower (1-2) or part of a zigzag correction (A-B), another leg lower should follow, targeting the 0.8650 support. This idea is viable as long as we trade below the 94.00 resistance.

tchamoun Updated 

After the impulsive first wave witnessed on the pair, where we had an extended first leg, the EUR/GBP is now correcting. The next levels to watch are the 38.2% and 50.0% retracement from the highs, which come in at 0.8404 and 0.8382. Those are good entry levels for the third wave, which could take prices higher towards 0.8600.

tchamoun Updated 

As we can see on the chart, the US100 still has at least one more leg lower to end the impulse wave. It's still not clear whether the 4th wave ended at 14651.5 or we still have one more push higher before the beginning of the 5th wave lower. Either way, as long as we trade below 15351 (the end of the 1st wave), odds favour more selling to lows below 13717 at the very least

tchamoun Updated 

As can be seen on the chart, the XAU/EUR is in the middle of correcting a five-wave decline that should take prices towards 1615/25 before the resumption of the down move. Whether the move lower is the third wave of an impulsive decline or the C wave of a corrective decline doesn't matter, the XAU/EUR should go lower. If the pair breaks above 1642, our analysis...