GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their October meeting, the RBNZ delivered on market expectations and raised the OCR by 25-basis points to an OCR of 0.50%. As the 25- basis point hike was already fully priced in, the fact that the bank did not provide any new additional information saw a textbook...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD before the RBNZ’s last meeting as market participants were forced to unwind aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB The ECB provided an overall balanced policy decision at their September meeting. They chose to slow the pace of asset purchases, explaining that the current levels of financing conditions allow them to buy assets under the PEPP at a ‘moderately’ slower pace compared to the pace of...
CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They...
AUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. The country’s economic and health developments There are 3 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – a Q3 GDP contraction is priced in so the question now is whether restrictions can be lifted in time to see a Q4 rebound. China – as Australia’s biggest export destination the current...
CAD – The Canadian dollar found support on Tuesday from rising oil prices and a further widening of its trade surplus in August’s report. Analysts note that Friday’s employment report is also likely to be positive and support ongoing expectations for a further reduction in bond purchases. GBP – Sterling rose to a three-week high against the euro on Tuesday,...
USD – The dollar eased against a basket of currencies on Monday, pulling back from the 1-year high hit last week, as traders looked to US jobs data at the end of the week for clues to the Federal Reserve’s next move. Fx analysts at Jefferies note that “Nonfarm payrolls will be the big focus for markets this week… Will the Fed read negatively to a 300k print?...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD before the RBNZ’s last meeting as market participants were forced to unwind aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right...
CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They...
CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD before the RBNZ’s last meeting as market participants were forced to unwind aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD before the RBNZ’s last meeting as market participants were forced to unwind aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of...
AUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. The country’s economic and health developments There are 3 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – a Q3 GDP contraction is priced in so the question now is whether restrictions can be lifted in time to see a Q4 rebound. China – as Australia’s biggest export destination the current...