trader_boulder

trader_boulder Updated 

Notice this giant bull flag developing over the past several weeks. "They" will need to push hard to get price back down to that level of support before bouncing. Should be an interesting Fall season.

trader_boulder

The purple "trend line" I drew in just a few days ago, thinking a pull back in the Qs (futures) would be healthy and not invalidate our bull trend. The horiz. FVG markers I drew in last week or the week before perhaps. If you combine FVG concepts and Supply/Demand then it gives you some "interesting areas" to consider when looking for places where price might...

trader_boulder

Look at the chart for callout descriptions. I'm not really sure that today's rebound was really a reversal... it was probably just a regular retracement in a downtrend. See callouts for details.

trader_boulder

Looks like AMZN is about to breakout, or change structure. From the looks of the 200ema, either of those things could happen.... with AMZN increasing automation and covid still hanging around though, I have a sneaky feeling that it's a break out. Here are my notes from my weekly analysis where I look at multiple time frames, volume profile and MACD. I trade...

trader_boulder

This is a bull flag formation long term.... looks like if it squeezes more it will pop up or down right around inauguration day.

trader_boulder

Market is either choppy or crashing right now... here's a 10 second analysis 1. Blue horiz lines represent targets (support)... according to volume profile we should find some support at this level... if it crashes through, then 312 is next target

trader_boulder

We seem to have changed overall market direction. Although, September is historically a tough month for the indexes... I think the swings are just especially challenging (or rewarding) b/c of overall unease about election, covid, worthless USD etc.

trader_boulder

Despite recent weakness in the market it seems like we're still in basic recovery channel. Notice back in June we had similar price activity compared to now... the media is also saying how recovery seems to be faster than expected etc. etc. and the Fed is backing off on buying corporate paper. So no... we're probably not about to crash.

trader_boulder

TSLA split means one thing... you can sell part of your position and take profit. Everyone is going to do just that this week. Major support at the new 300 price but I won't be surprised if that's where it goes this week.

trader_boulder

Remember when AAPL used to go up heavily on news... like the "leak" of a new iPhone design or the promise of something cool? It was such a fan-boi stock. Trading TESLA has been much of the same... but it seems the news announcements have often been structural rather than just more of the same kind of stuff they've been doing. The announcements they've made or...

trader_boulder

TSLA isn't a car company. It's a software and energy company. It's a fanboi stock like AAPL. Earnings come out on 7/22... my guess? It's going to almost double... to 2K or perhaps 2.4K Why? Because Elon isn't just building cars. He's building an infrastructure for a new energy future. Want to hear the bullish case? Try here: www.youtube.com

trader_boulder

With corona virus cases skyrocketing, and economic damage still not quite measured, the market seems to be doubting this recent rally... which was never a "V" shaped recovery but was recovering all the same. Yesterday, was a nervous day for all my weekly positions... today did some damage. I exited all my positions with just 1 hitting my profit target, a few break...

trader_boulder

As much as the new Robinhooders and my grandma would like the market (stocks) to always go up.... it looks like the smart money is just beginning to load up on tvix... which normally is a leading indicator to steep down moves in the broader market. Today was deep... I expect tomorrow to be a deeper cut still.

trader_boulder

Note the two days previous.. .massive unloading of TVIX... the hedge against sharp downturns and VIX jumps. Note what's happening now... quietly loading back up on TVIX. Are we getting ready for another pull back in general? The market does seem to have entered the irrational exuberance phase that's for sure.

trader_boulder

At the bottom, everyone is freaking out and selling... VIX is spiking, TVIX is at $1,000, there's "blood on the streets"... it's a level of selling that is capitulation... people are finally suffering too much to hold on to their shares and they sell them... mass selling happens at that moment. But so does mass buying. The smart money buys at that level. Now......

trader_boulder

Looks like SPX500 has decided to leave the trading range and break resistance at 2985 to follow the not very steep recovery channel. (green lines with modest angle up and to the right) Despite all the people crying foul and claiming the market should be retesting the lows and the economy is tanking. The market isn't at the moment. For how long will this continue...

trader_boulder

I don't see this "retest of the lows" happening. We have the entire world rearing to get back to work and make the economy happen. Structurally things are "OK... I say we go sideways for a while... maybe months... then up.

trader_boulder

The over all market is not in a V-shaped recovery, but a more gentle angle, still up... at the moment the SPX is consolidating in the yellow channel. At this instant we're looking at resistance. If it goes above and turns that into support by a re-test, then we're up for a day or two. If it gets rejected, then we're down for the rest of the week.