RunningAlpha
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RunningAlpha.com Capital Markets Favors 5-Year Note Yield Rise

MOEX:1BJ2014   IBOVESPA FUTURES
RunningAlpha Capital Markets see market players in the 5 year treasury notes at the belly of the USA yield curve structurally positioned for a very strong bullish bias ahead on both an absolute and relative yield curve basis. A breakout above the August 5th highs should accelerate the rally and add upside persistence to the 5 year yield. So, be on high alert for a rate hike soon. This should ultimately be interpreted by the greater investment community, Corporate America, and the international policy-making community a sign of re-balancing. Given Canada's polar interest rate policy regime, this forward market action should put extreme pressure on Canada, and at the same time serve as a material improvement in net interest margin for US financial institutions and money center / regional / community banks.

Please ignore IBOVESPA             chart -- should focus on FVX             -- 5 year Yield Tresury Yield Chart
RunningAlpha
a year ago
Just to clarify the market note above, a breakout above the August 5th, 2015 highs in the 5 year note yield should accelerate and add persistence to the now emerging rally in the 5 year treasury note yields.

The relative forward-looking out-performance in the 5 year note yield is currently suggesting that the shorter-end belly of the curve is convinced that the Fed will move in 2015.
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