QuantumLogicTrading
Long

AUDNZD - STAT TRADE: BUY AFTER A 5TH DAY OF SELLING; P=98.7%

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
AUDNZD:

1. Aussie kiwi has been aggressively sold lower for the last 8/9 days, with the bullday being only 4pips higher (pretty much 9 straight days of selling) and most recently the last 4 days have been pure consecutive closes lower.

2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 5th day or more of selling is 3% which means there is an implied 32/33/ 97% chance that we move higher on the next day, these odds arent too great so I suggust NOT buying on open, instead lets wait and see if we can get another close lower on the daily that takes us into the strong support zone at 1.041/3 - then this will mean buying the probability that a 6th or more day of selling occurs which is 1.3% or an implied chance of 98.7% or 99/100 that the price will go up on the 6th day

Trading strategy - AUDNZD             wait for monday to close lower at 1.041/3 and buy tuesdays open:

1. I advise buying aussie here after the 5th day lower as the 6th day has a 98.7% chance of moving higher, after a 5th day of selling, the odds are good and I will take part in this.
Comment: UPDATE:

1. No trade - AUDNZD mid finished higher today (FXCM prices are spreaded lower)
according to the update , do you expect its now a good position for a long on this pair now ?
Reply
This type of statistical trading requires consistent runs of up or down.. AUDNZD hasnt had this recently so no I couldnt say it does.. however, by other means AUDNZD does look over sold, buying on dips is advisable but i personally am not involved.
+1 Reply
I am long this pair too. Bought at dips. Only just now started turning green.
Reply
what is this unrelated to /chart/NZDUSD/ thread chart doing here?
you should not abuse tags to promote your ideas
Reply
If youre asking me what NZDUSD and AUDUSD have to do with this trade you should question what you know about trading - theres something called correlation, and funny enough since audnzd contains BOTH NZDUSD and AUDUSD i clearly see what this is relevant.

If AUDNZD is set to move higher, this infers audusd may outperform nzdusd on the day too - open your mind to more than whats obvious to you BEFORE talking about "abuse" of anything.
+1 Reply
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