#AUDNZD: Keep an eye on the basing pattern here...

The weekly down trend signal in $AUDNZD expires next week, this means a potential reversal can be setting up. At the same time, the daily chart is basing and can flash a bullish signal in a day or more. I'll be watching this pair closely in the coming days, after today's close in particular. The recent bout of #NZD strength courtesy of RNBZ's hawkishness has droven the cross pair too far in my opinion and is bound to mean revert substantially, as we recover from peak pessimism when it comes to Australia and China...

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

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No buy signal yet, can't happen today. To have a bullish reversal here, with chances of going all the way back to 1.075, price needs to first recclaim the yellow box here, then break out to the upside after a few days basing:

I suppose it will happen during next week.

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Making a lower low under last week's low nullifies that possibility of course...

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Weekly $AUDNZD down trend expires now, keep an eye on it
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/j/jMyjnBQJ.png

Trade active:

I'm long here:

Starter position, will add once daily forms a clear basing pattern.
Stop is 1.02465, tp @ 1.07435

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My good friend @Rocketman is in the trade as well, a great forex trader and a great guy, props to him for reminding me about this one, it was on my radar.

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Price action is looking solid for a potential bottom, early to tell, but promising:

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So far, so good.

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Added, my first position now has a break even stop.

Trade closed manually:

I've banked the trade, got filled @ 1.0479.
Made a total reward to risk of 3.28 times. Realized reward to risk (how far price moved against me after getting in) of 4.53 to 1. This is a good way to score how impressive the move was after your entry, vs the temporary drawdown you might have faced. At times, when this goes over 3-5, it is best to take profits. You could evaluate what % of trades using your system fall at which levels of realized reward to risk, make a scatter plot of trades taken, and figure out optimal exit levels based on it. Definitely interesting way to grade your setups. This one was extremely smooth.

I anticipate some volatility, with the upcoming RBNZ rate hike. I copied price action from the last time the RBNZ hiked rates, which happened after a bottom in $AUDNZD as well for reference of a possible course of action...

Trade active:

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Bot back, we got continuation now, after the RBNZ is out of the way.

Trade closed manually:

Sold, will wait for consolidation...

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So far, it had a little more oomph on it. Let's wait for a consolidation.

Trade active:

Trade closed manually:

Support not holding: Exit #AUDNZD

The yield curve controls the RBA is implementing aren't helping the Aussie against NZD. $AUDUSD long is moving nicely though.

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Trend is up again.

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