DanV
Long

AUDUSD - POTENTIAL BULLISH REVERSAL COULD BE AT HAND.

FX_IDC:AUDUSD   AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR
There are several interpretation on longer term prospect for AUDUSD             as some analyst of major banks ( http://technical-analysis.forexlive.com/!/audusd-elliot-wave-technical-analysis-from--morgan-stanley---targets-a-lot-lower-20150719 ), attempt to label the chart and I assume they know what they are talking about.

However, I am not sure about the move from 2008 low to 2001 high labelled as 5 wave impulse and likewise suggesting that we are now in 5 wave decline from 2011 high, in so doing it is suggested that the initial decline of 2011 high to October 2011 swing low qualifies as wave 1. If correct then in lower time frame it should have minor 5 waves. Count how you wish, I can only see a zigzag rather than 5 waves.

In contrast I see the entire rally from 2008 -2011 high as WXY zigzag and retracement since 2011 high as abc zigzag with wave c as possible ending diagonal , with approx low to form around 0.70

If correct I anticipate strong rally of this low either to retest 2011 high or as a part of complex correction with 0.86 - 0.95 as upside target.

Summary if technicals:
1. Initial decline from 2011 high to October 2011 swing low is a zigzag hence part of correction rather than new impulsive 5 wave decline.
2. Retrace to Feb 2012 high was also a zigzag .
3. Since the Feb high we have leading diagonal for form wave 1 which in turn is part of larger falling wedge ( ending diagonal of potentially 3-3-3-3-3 construction) which is nearing completion around 0.70.
4. 0.70 is a 78.6% retracement of rally from 2008 - 2011 high and has confluence with other fib projections show on the chart.
5. Rising trendline from 2008 low also come in as potential support in that proximity.
6. price zone where previous structure highs and lows were formed.
7. General sentiments among traders is very bearish .
8. Finally we might see hidden bullish divergence in price where RSI might form new lower low compared with 2008 and price possibly making higher low.
9. Invalidation level strong close below 0.70

Incidentally, the above anticipated low seems to make sense when compared with Gold             which has strong positive correlation with AUDUSD             and is also forming its potentially ending diagonal to complete its correction since 2011 high.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
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Based on Market Profile (volumes) and Price Action there is very strong swing support at 0.7246. There was about 2 week rotation where the big players accumulated their long trades and then moved the price agressively higher. You Can see this strong trading activity even on yearly volume profile!
If the price comes back to 0.7246 I think that the agressive buyers will come again and push the price higher once more.
Here is my analysis:
AUD/USD swing based on Market Profile and Price Action
Reply
DanV MOD Trader_Dale
@Trader_Dale, I agree. Excellent analysis and thank you for sharing.
Reply
hi! we have some possibilities to reach 0.6807 or a little bit lower to begin a bull run
3 month
Reply
DanV MOD Nickmail
It is possible and if it does I will check to see if the counts on my chart still holds. Thanks for your charts and comment.
Reply
it still holds ;)
Reply
breaking of long term uptrend channel doesnt sound good
so far no reversal yet
snapshot

monthly candle is still making LL, LH
Reply
DanV MOD jangseohee
Yes that is a possible worry. But you never know. If it does not bottom soon then wave counts may have to be adjusted. But for now will observe. Thanks for your comments and chart.
+1 Reply
BBTRIX jangseohee
there is no uptrend, there is 45 years downtrend
Reply
BBTRIX jangseohee
personal thoughts
Reply
Thanks for sharing your chart and anlysis. I agree based on longer term chart there appears to be a down trend.

However, I am sure you will accept:
1 That trends are relative to time frame under consideration.
2. Within larger trend there are intermediate trends or strong retracements that last several years and are relatively deep.

It is withing this concept that I think we could have strong rally or deep retracements even retest of 1.10 could be feasible and might not alter your view of longer term downtrend.
Reply
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