FederalXBT

Bitcoin No Limits - World Takeover Don't Trust The Marketcap

Long
FederalXBT Updated   
BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Hello this is my first post for the future and some bitcoin projections I have been running during the bear market, everyone see it from my view and why this is a pretty historic event happening before our eyes. Biggest financial event in human history to be exact. . not just our lives.
2025
$855,775 Medium | Market cap ($17,971,275,000,000 based on 21m supply) $17.971 trillion
$2,038,869 Parabolic | Market cap ($42,816,249,000,000 based on 21m supply) $48.816 trillion

BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2025 $183,498 that's 8,742%.
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2030
$3,471,145 Medium | Market cap ($72,894,045,000,000 based on 21m supply) $72.894 trillion
$6,610,057 Parabolic | Market cap ($138,811,197,000,000 based on 21m supply) $138.811 trillion
BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2030 $592,853 that's 28,791%.
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You need to stop looking at Bitcoin based on market capitalization, this is not a technology stock, this is not a company they cannot be compared what so ever.
Its impossible to dilute Bitcoin, Its not impossible to dilute Apple shares.
Fiat money can be printed and devalued renominated, Its impossible to print Bitcoin and create inflation outside of the 21m limit.

Rick Falkvinge explains this perfectly, how do we calculate a 1 billion dollar market cap token?
Step 1 Issue 1 billion Tokens
Step 2 convince a few thousand people to buy each token for $1
Step 3 you now have what wall street uses to value companies economic value, and you probably just realized 100 Trillion in Bitcoin is not 100 trillion dollars, you can have a 1,000 trillion market cap with less than 50 Trillion of fiat value floating around in the asset.

You start to realize the total crypto market capitalization filled with scams was not 3.0 Trillion in real fiat value.
In 2021 at the peak only 176 Billion was the daily volume on Coinmarketcap, if you add in that market caps are not correct it would be less than a 10 billion per day of real fiat currency, its a lot correct but its not near what people thought.

Lets continue the journey and use Visual Capitalist to see what money looks like today.

-Notional value of derivatives is now estimated to be $600 trillion, notional value is another method to use over market cap.

-Market value of derivatives $12.4 trillion

-House hold wealth globally $463 trillion

-Commercial real estate $33 trillion

-Residential real estate $259 trillion

-Global debt $300 trillion

-Global money supply M1 $48.9 trillion M1 includes currency i.e. banknotes and coins, plus overnight deposits

-Global money supply M2 $82.6 trillion M2 is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers' checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds.

-Global Equities $95.9 trillion

-Central Bank Assets $28.0 trillion Fed, BoJ, Bank of China, and Eurozone only

Here we come to the end, where you should now understand even purchasing $1 dollar of Bitcoin can equal a range of multiples more than 10x of market cap pressure if you're measuring it in market cap.
What can we use besides market cap to find Bitcoins value? we can't it has not been created yet.

Further points, sovereign states who purchase Bitcoin and have no plan to make them available to the public market like El Salvador that's another multiples of leverage on top of the original purchase, and unlike derivatives this leverage can be held infinitely just how central banks store Gold bars infinitely.

Still wondering what this is implying after that long explanation?
For Bitcoin to get near a $100 trillion dollar market cap giving it a price of $4,800,000 per coin you could pull this off with less than $10 trillion of real fiat injecting into the Bitcoin economy if 21,000,000 coins are openly traded.


Some factors that will be unknown due to the nature of statistics
- how many coins are truly lost?
- how much fiat will central banks print?
- how many users will be on layer 2s like the lightning network?
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This is why the Bitcoin exchange supply is acting abnormal and its starting to really decrease due to institutions, banks, funds all allocating behind the scenes regardless if Bitcoin goes to $5,000, $10,000 anything under $100,000 is cheap.

Fidelity investments one of the largest funds in the world notices this trend and they have made their decision.

What are pathways institutions are taking to capture this wealth?
- Cold storage.
- Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) call options that expire longer than 1 year.
- Avoid futures ETF's or any futures product that does not use underlying Bitcoin, these decay and have management fee's and will greatly reduce your profit. (I found this ETF that tracks Bitcoins price?) forget it don't touch it.

Bitcoin cycles will eventually became a thing of the past once adoption reached maximum velocity, lets enjoy the time we have with it now and respect it till its gone.


Better call Doc Brown when Bitcoin starts to move you're gonna see some serious s***

Comment:
My model might be on the bearish side, things are moving faster than expected.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKBstPFn...
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