Hello everyone, my name is CombJelliesAreCool, lets get to brass tacks.
Lets start off with the red and green curves i have surrounding the entirety of the price action for BTC, i started off with the first high and low back in Oct 2010 and connected the green curve with every subsequent rally high and connected my red curve with every subsequent rally low. Doing this, its clear to see that touching either of these curves is a trustworthy indicator for the end or beginning of a sustained uptrend. Due to the inherent volatility of the bitcoin market, its entirely possible for a downtrend to occur inside of an uptrend of vice versa. However, if your uptrend doesn't touch the green curve or the downtrend doesn't touch the red curve then the trend has not completed. This indicator has played out without fail for almost 10 years now and can be seen in action with the rallies of 2011 and 2013 and the down trends of 2014 through early 2015 and i posit for the downtrend of 2018 through the rest of 2019.
On this indicator i took my inspiration from @MagicPoopCannon but I came to a different conclusion on the shape of the curves, he posits that as time goes on the price of bitcoin will eventually stabilize, although I agree with him that price action will eventually stabilize as the market gets saturated, I highly doubt stability is coming anywhere in the near future with the increasing adoption and exponential amounts more money that's coming into the market so my bands increase in width as time goes on as opposed to decreases.
Lets move on to the SMA cross, it looks like there's an impending deathcross on the horizon coming to confirm this downtrend we've been in for two months, with this harsh of a downtrend in the past week I assume its coming sooner than later, especially looking at the shape of the 50 SMA up close.
Now for the NVT analysis, I noticed that the shape of the nvt during late 2012 through mid way 2014 has a lot of confluence with the NVT of mid 2017 through now. I first noticed that a new end of the downtrend wasnt confirmed until the NVT for a green oversold signal, one that we didnt have, even during out catastrophic drop in Nov 2018. If you look at the red lines you can see that the shapes of the NVT are basically symmetrical. You see a gradual rise into a steep rise followed by a monster of a dropoff, boom, green oversold signal, a gradual rise and plateau followed by yet another steep rise and another, albeit ever so slightly less of a dropoff than the previous, this takes us into the mid 70s of the NVT, we plateua, chop for a couple months than a decent uptrend and a very gradual drop off of the third red peak of the NVT, and finally our second green on the NVT since out first red peak and a touch of the red curve to signify the end of the downtrend. A majority of this trend is confirmed including the steepness of the angles and the timing of the plateaus in the trend. I would assume this would indeed be the case if we had good NVT data for our very first bull and bear cycle.
If this fractal plays proportionally our eventual low will likely be the high 2000s or low 3000s and our rally high in 2023 will be around 250000 - 300000 dollars per BTC. Shes going down boys.
Thank you for reading, Im open to ideas and criticisms.
Lets start off with the red and green curves i have surrounding the entirety of the price action for BTC, i started off with the first high and low back in Oct 2010 and connected the green curve with every subsequent rally high and connected my red curve with every subsequent rally low. Doing this, its clear to see that touching either of these curves is a trustworthy indicator for the end or beginning of a sustained uptrend. Due to the inherent volatility of the bitcoin market, its entirely possible for a downtrend to occur inside of an uptrend of vice versa. However, if your uptrend doesn't touch the green curve or the downtrend doesn't touch the red curve then the trend has not completed. This indicator has played out without fail for almost 10 years now and can be seen in action with the rallies of 2011 and 2013 and the down trends of 2014 through early 2015 and i posit for the downtrend of 2018 through the rest of 2019.
On this indicator i took my inspiration from @MagicPoopCannon but I came to a different conclusion on the shape of the curves, he posits that as time goes on the price of bitcoin will eventually stabilize, although I agree with him that price action will eventually stabilize as the market gets saturated, I highly doubt stability is coming anywhere in the near future with the increasing adoption and exponential amounts more money that's coming into the market so my bands increase in width as time goes on as opposed to decreases.
Lets move on to the SMA cross, it looks like there's an impending deathcross on the horizon coming to confirm this downtrend we've been in for two months, with this harsh of a downtrend in the past week I assume its coming sooner than later, especially looking at the shape of the 50 SMA up close.
Now for the NVT analysis, I noticed that the shape of the nvt during late 2012 through mid way 2014 has a lot of confluence with the NVT of mid 2017 through now. I first noticed that a new end of the downtrend wasnt confirmed until the NVT for a green oversold signal, one that we didnt have, even during out catastrophic drop in Nov 2018. If you look at the red lines you can see that the shapes of the NVT are basically symmetrical. You see a gradual rise into a steep rise followed by a monster of a dropoff, boom, green oversold signal, a gradual rise and plateau followed by yet another steep rise and another, albeit ever so slightly less of a dropoff than the previous, this takes us into the mid 70s of the NVT, we plateua, chop for a couple months than a decent uptrend and a very gradual drop off of the third red peak of the NVT, and finally our second green on the NVT since out first red peak and a touch of the red curve to signify the end of the downtrend. A majority of this trend is confirmed including the steepness of the angles and the timing of the plateaus in the trend. I would assume this would indeed be the case if we had good NVT data for our very first bull and bear cycle.
If this fractal plays proportionally our eventual low will likely be the high 2000s or low 3000s and our rally high in 2023 will be around 250000 - 300000 dollars per BTC. Shes going down boys.
Thank you for reading, Im open to ideas and criticisms.
