Is Bitcoin Headed to $1000 This Year? (Elliott Wave Analysis)
The break down this month has necessitated a MAJOR change in my Elliott Wave count. While the long-term is still ultra-bullish, actually even MORE bullish with this new count, the intermediate term over the next few months is looking quite bearish.
With a global liquidity crisis mounting people will need to sell ALL types of assets to be able to survive this coronavirus/liquidity crisis. As more people lose jobs and their investments depreciate people will desperately need dollars to stay afloat and pay bills. This includes people who hold cryptocurrencies. Crypto is NOT immune to a liquidity crisis. The FED will need to print A LOT more money before we can recover from this drought of dollar liquidity, it should happen by the end of the year though when the FED goes into full blown panic mode.
In the meantime, until liquidity comes back into the market en masse, BTC will likely head towards $1000 by November. This is by no means a death sentence for BTC or cryptocurrency and will simply be the largest correction ever experienced. We will recover though, and it will be a testament to cryptocurrency's resilience.
Zooming out to the largest count on the Half Yearly chart, I've had to change this count from a diametric to what is technically a neutral triangle. This new count comes directly from the S&P, where wave-C ended in 2011 and wave-D ended in 2018, and now we are forming wave-E. This is the only long-term count that really makes sense at this point so I've forced it onto this chart.
Also, having wave-E start in 2018 is MUCH MORE BULLISH than my previous count. It means after around 2022 we should begin one of the strongest, most consistent bull runs in history on both BTC and the S&P! This is consistent with the macro fundamentals as fiat currency will become significantly weaker over the next 2 years as central bankers print money on maximum overdrive to get us out of this recession.
Also this is consistent with other cryptocurrencies. If BTC drops ~80% from here I would suspect that the majority of cryptocurrencies will fall AT LEAST 80%, and many will make full recoveries as well.
For reference, here is my count on the S&P (Note the similarities between BTC and the S&P counts!)
With a global liquidity crisis mounting people will need to sell ALL types of assets to be able to survive this coronavirus/liquidity crisis. As more people lose jobs and their investments depreciate people will desperately need dollars to stay afloat and pay bills. This includes people who hold cryptocurrencies. Crypto is NOT immune to a liquidity crisis. The FED will need to print A LOT more money before we can recover from this drought of dollar liquidity, it should happen by the end of the year though when the FED goes into full blown panic mode.
In the meantime, until liquidity comes back into the market en masse, BTC will likely head towards $1000 by November. This is by no means a death sentence for BTC or cryptocurrency and will simply be the largest correction ever experienced. We will recover though, and it will be a testament to cryptocurrency's resilience.
Zooming out to the largest count on the Half Yearly chart, I've had to change this count from a diametric to what is technically a neutral triangle. This new count comes directly from the S&P, where wave-C ended in 2011 and wave-D ended in 2018, and now we are forming wave-E. This is the only long-term count that really makes sense at this point so I've forced it onto this chart.
Also, having wave-E start in 2018 is MUCH MORE BULLISH than my previous count. It means after around 2022 we should begin one of the strongest, most consistent bull runs in history on both BTC and the S&P! This is consistent with the macro fundamentals as fiat currency will become significantly weaker over the next 2 years as central bankers print money on maximum overdrive to get us out of this recession.
Also this is consistent with other cryptocurrencies. If BTC drops ~80% from here I would suspect that the majority of cryptocurrencies will fall AT LEAST 80%, and many will make full recoveries as well.
For reference, here is my count on the S&P (Note the similarities between BTC and the S&P counts!)
Comment:
BTC hit 10k and reversed, it's looking like there's a good chance the top is in if we stay under 10k. If we break 10k we could push above 11k, but this is the strongest drop we've had since wave-b started so there's a good chance that wave-b has just ended at the high, and we could see some bearish price action post-halving.
BTC hit 10k and reversed, it's looking like there's a good chance the top is in if we stay under 10k. If we break 10k we could push above 11k, but this is the strongest drop we've had since wave-b started so there's a good chance that wave-b has just ended at the high, and we could see some bearish price action post-halving.
Comment:
It seems quite likely that we will re-test 10k at this point, if we can break past it then wave-b is not finished and we'll keep climbing towards 11k+
Comment:
We've gone sideways for the last 2 months as forecasted in my public chat. At this point the probabilities are favoring a break up through the 10k resistance relatively soon. If this next wave up goes above 15k then the chances of us retracing back to 1k are very low and most likely we can eliminate that as a possibility. However, the possibility that we get another large crash later in the year are still relatively high, it just won't go as low as 1k.
Comment:
Moving over to this chart:
There are lots of bearish divergences and this price action is generally pretty weak so it seems like it's likely that wave-b on this chart will be fully retraced AT SOME POINT, but as of right NOW it seems like wave-b could keep climbing up and potentially even fully retrace wave-a.
Wave-b are the most difficult waves to pick the end of, so we'll have to wait until the market gives us a clear signal that wave-b is over and then the downtrend should resume.