Why I don't like the current rally: Longterm implications on BTC
So I was thinking for a long time about this current move of BTC. WTF is BTC doing here, it should still "rest" in 2019 and start the bigger upmoves in early 2020, a few months before the halving.
Instead, we are already now apparently pushing for higher highs, and are not too far away from ATH any more.
And BTC? Still no sign of a larger correction.
I hoped that a larger correction to the daily MA200 at 6.3k would take place, then some nice consolidation, the way BTC used to do this in the 2012 rally, and at the start of the bullmarket in
late 2015/early 2016.
This leads me to believe that this move here is not a rally of its own, but an extension move of the rally to 20k in 2017.
Exactly akin to the second 2013 rally, which took us to 1150 USD in november 2013. Because back then we already had a rally
in April 2013, which went from around 10 USD to 260 USD. So the move to 1150 also took many by surprise. We can however see this event as a double rally, where BTC grew a factor of
500 from the low of 2 USD in early 2012, to around 1150 USD in late 2013.
We can see that the factors are getting lower, in 2010-2011 we had a factor of up to 3200 (if you count the factor from the lowest low to the top).
Then 500, and now, if BTC continues this rally to new all time highs, 45k would mean the area of high historic resistance.
Now, this would put this move here to 45k to be a continuation move of the 2015 to 2017 rally, we would therefore see 2015 to 2019 as a bullmarket, and the "bearmarket" 2018
would be a fake "mini" bearmarket akin to the one from April to October 2013.
In Eliott wave counts, this would mean that we would now have seen wave 5 of the total moves from 2010:
Wave1: 0.01 USD to 32 USD.
Wave 2: 32 to 2 USD.
Wave 3: 2 USD to 1150 USD.
Wave 4: 1150 USD to 160 USD.
Wave 5: 160 USD to 45k USD.
And then we would see a longer A-B-C type of correction, therefore the "real" bearmarket would follow afterwards.
Now, I am also not fully convinced of this scenario, because the bearmarket would fall into the territory of the halving, and I don't know what to make of that.
But still, this here is a possibility that we shouldn't brush off easily. And I don't like it, because 45k is not the 100k+ which we would have had in 2021. It feels short of what BTC is capable of.
And the next ATHs would then be years away, in 2024+, with the top of the new wave 1 in 2028 !!
Ok, I've written a lot now, but I had to get this off my mind, and to ask what you smart people think of this :)
Instead, we are already now apparently pushing for higher highs, and are not too far away from ATH any more.
And BTC? Still no sign of a larger correction.
I hoped that a larger correction to the daily MA200 at 6.3k would take place, then some nice consolidation, the way BTC used to do this in the 2012 rally, and at the start of the bullmarket in
late 2015/early 2016.
This leads me to believe that this move here is not a rally of its own, but an extension move of the rally to 20k in 2017.
Exactly akin to the second 2013 rally, which took us to 1150 USD in november 2013. Because back then we already had a rally
in April 2013, which went from around 10 USD to 260 USD. So the move to 1150 also took many by surprise. We can however see this event as a double rally, where BTC grew a factor of
500 from the low of 2 USD in early 2012, to around 1150 USD in late 2013.
We can see that the factors are getting lower, in 2010-2011 we had a factor of up to 3200 (if you count the factor from the lowest low to the top).
Then 500, and now, if BTC continues this rally to new all time highs, 45k would mean the area of high historic resistance.
Now, this would put this move here to 45k to be a continuation move of the 2015 to 2017 rally, we would therefore see 2015 to 2019 as a bullmarket, and the "bearmarket" 2018
would be a fake "mini" bearmarket akin to the one from April to October 2013.
In Eliott wave counts, this would mean that we would now have seen wave 5 of the total moves from 2010:
Wave1: 0.01 USD to 32 USD.
Wave 2: 32 to 2 USD.
Wave 3: 2 USD to 1150 USD.
Wave 4: 1150 USD to 160 USD.
Wave 5: 160 USD to 45k USD.
And then we would see a longer A-B-C type of correction, therefore the "real" bearmarket would follow afterwards.
Now, I am also not fully convinced of this scenario, because the bearmarket would fall into the territory of the halving, and I don't know what to make of that.
But still, this here is a possibility that we shouldn't brush off easily. And I don't like it, because 45k is not the 100k+ which we would have had in 2021. It feels short of what BTC is capable of.
And the next ATHs would then be years away, in 2024+, with the top of the new wave 1 in 2028 !!
Ok, I've written a lot now, but I had to get this off my mind, and to ask what you smart people think of this :)
Comment:
Here an update with the complete wave count, of how I would imagine it from the beginning:
According to that picture, this rally here then would complete wave 5.
As we can see, the ratio 1150:32 is smaller than 65k to 1150. If the exact same ratio would apply, we'd get around 40k as a top.
However, wave 5 normally tends to be larger, therefore we could get as high as 65k, with EXTREME LUCK 80-100k. I wouldn't count on that, though.
The curved resistance is not really precise and is plusminus many thousands, so it's not easy to determine the possible top.
We can say that it lies between 40 and 100k lol.
Quite a range there. But it feels as if 40 is a bit too low, only x2 above old ATH.
100 would be quite extreme. So 50-70k seems reasonable if indeed we get such a scenario.
In case BTC suddenly starts correcting to daily MA200, then this picture here is invalidated. If however BTC pushes on, this picture gets more likely.
According to that picture, this rally here then would complete wave 5.
As we can see, the ratio 1150:32 is smaller than 65k to 1150. If the exact same ratio would apply, we'd get around 40k as a top.
However, wave 5 normally tends to be larger, therefore we could get as high as 65k, with EXTREME LUCK 80-100k. I wouldn't count on that, though.
The curved resistance is not really precise and is plusminus many thousands, so it's not easy to determine the possible top.
We can say that it lies between 40 and 100k lol.
Quite a range there. But it feels as if 40 is a bit too low, only x2 above old ATH.
100 would be quite extreme. So 50-70k seems reasonable if indeed we get such a scenario.
In case BTC suddenly starts correcting to daily MA200, then this picture here is invalidated. If however BTC pushes on, this picture gets more likely.
Because in April 2013, the peak also didn't quite reach the resistance, which would be now accordingly drawn for the 20k peak.