FlaviusTodorius67

Updated longterm BTC chart: The road to 1 million.

Long
BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
I am a BTC bull, but I see far too many overly optimistic price projections on tradingview.
They seem to draw an exponential channel, instead of the current one, that is curved.

While of course it can be that BTC goes out of the current channel, and bursts through the upper resistance, thus reverting back to its original exponential trend,
I like to be more conservative. Because as of now, there is still no reason to believe that BTC will do so, only because it has pumped now already 6 months earlier than 4 years ago.

This could just mean that we also reach the peak 6 months earlier.

The fundamental price drivers will remain the halvings and mainstream adoption.

We can also clearly see that the factors between the subsequent peaks is diminishing every time.
From x38 to x16 and now probably to around x6 and so on.

It cannot just continue to do the same increases again and again, then we would have prices of 100 million USD by 2025 or some insane stuff like that.
That is not very scientific but sensationalist, and we should remain realistic here, even if that means being more conservative. Conservative with 1.3 million in 2030 LOL.
Try telling that someone in the stockmarket hehehe!

Anyways, there is indeed the chance that BTC leaves this channel and creates a faster rising one, but the future datapoints are not here yet, so we must use
the past points for extrapolation.

But no matter what happens, I am convinced that BTC mainstream adoption WILL happen. It's not an "if" question, but a "when" question.
Comment: It will get interesting now, how fast btc will be in making new all-time highs. It might take a little longer than on this chart, maybe by the end of 2021, and maybe "only" 100k instead of 120k.
But then again, it might also surprise us, and indeed reach ATH in July. It all depends now on the growth dynamics of the next months.

Comments

Not a fan of logarithmic long term projections at all.
But for some psychological reason, if Btc does start a bull run from around here, i am almost certain new comers and hodlers will target the million for this.
First a large correction from around the 180k$ to the 27k$.
Then another parabolic growth targetting the million, with everyone and his mother mining Satoshis on their phones with factory preinstalled Btc mining app.
Utopia never hurts nobody.
Hyperbitcoinization would be on its way.
+8 Reply
FlaviusTodorius67 Giorgioversace
@Giorgioversace, Thanks for commenting! Well, I wouldn't have anything against your scenario. It would be fun indeed. In that case it would take far shorter time to reach the million. Either way, then long route or the fast route, it is going to be a fun ride :)
+5 Reply
bits2sats FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Did you take into account fiat debasement? Keep in mind the money supply growth of Federal Reserve dropped massively in the last bull market (QE 3 had ended and QT just started). Now rates are being cut again, with almost certainty of another QE. I would say a better measure of Bitcoin price is against Gold which has had a relatively predictable supply growth.
Reply
drdanishhaider FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Your chart is correct. coming decade is only building phase and it will slowly get adopted. Nothibg happens overnight
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Good analysis. I wish you were right. What I am currently thinking... The road to Heaven leads through Hell. And we haven't been there yet. ;-)
+2 Reply
BearFuck ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, If you invest 1% of capital in Bitcoin and Hell happens you will loss just 0.5-0.9% of your capital. But if you win and x100 happens ($1 000 000 per BTC) you will double your capital.
+1 Reply
@ReallyMe, So you're willing to potentially miss out on huge gains because you cling to your bearish view. In BTC you'll need to be flexible and constantly re-evaluate your stance, flip from bear to bull and vice versa. Just a friendly advice, if you really want to make nice gains in this market ;) And you are a friendly guy, so I'd like to give you advice.

What if your bottom doesn't come, but 3100 USD was indeed the bottom.
Sure, there could be a lower bottom still (even though the chances for that are declining very fast by the week). But you're willing to bet on that?

That is extremely risky!
It's weird that I have to agree with our favorite troll Bearfuck this time. But just invest a small portion and cost-average buy every week a bit of btc, for at least a few months.

This way, you'll win either way.
+2 Reply
ReallyMe FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, I know that I've been getting on the nerves of many people with my seemingly pessimistic assessments lately. ;-)
(when I kept saying that we were probably doing an A-B-C-correction and everyone was screaming: "To the Moon!")
But for me they are not pessimistic, but realistic.
Why should you buy Bitcoin on the neck line of a H&S pattern
only not to miss out the infinitesimal chance that it suddenly rises to 120k from there? ;-)
Common sense tells me it won't. What's more, common sense tells me that it will fall from there.

So at the moment I just don't see a reasonable setup for a trade on BTC that would be worth it.

Of course I can be wrong with that. But I do not force my view of things on anyone. Just sharing my thoughts. ;-) Good luck out there.
+2 Reply
@ReallyMe, You're absolutely not getting on my nerves. The only one managing that sometimes, is this Bearfuck guy XD

So then what is your strategy to make nice gains in this market? Waiting for your potential ABC low in a few months or whenever?
What if BTC ignores it, and BTC sometimes like to completely ignore TA by the way.

Then you will miss out, just because you had a certain view.
I on the other hand have bought into altcoins the moment BTC went over the MA200.
Should it really do another low as you hope, I can just buy more.

However, if it does a rally sooner than expected, then I make nice gains.

You on the other hand, will completely miss out if BTC makes new highs in 2020. And that would be sad. And we are all here because we want to make money, right?

But ok, you can of course do whatever you want hehe. I just wanted to give you friendly advice :)
+3 Reply
ReallyMe FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Yes, thanks for that. Advice appreciated. My strategy at the moment is not to be greedy and wait patiently for a really convincing setup in crypto. In my opinion, such is currently not visible. Too much is the crypto market still wavering between collapse and rise. I sold all my Bitcoins back in Jan 2018 at $11k and am just watching it at the moment.
In the meantime, I trade other more predictable equity markets and commodities.
I'm watching crypto closely, though, and as soon as I see something, I'll certainly be back.
Just for the record: If I had any Bitcoins I would sell them as soon as price falls below the daily MA38 and I would certainly not buy any more at the moment. This may change depending on the market situation, as I said. But right now that's what it is. ;-)
+1 Reply
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