They seem to draw an exponential channel, instead of the current one, that is curved.
While of course it can be that BTC goes out of the current channel, and bursts through the upper resistance, thus reverting back to its original exponential trend,
I like to be more conservative. Because as of now, there is still no reason to believe that BTC will do so, only because it has pumped now already 6 months earlier than 4 years ago.
This could just mean that we also reach the peak 6 months earlier.
The fundamental price drivers will remain the halvings and mainstream adoption.
We can also clearly see that the factors between the subsequent peaks is diminishing every time.
From x38 to x16 and now probably to around x6 and so on.
It cannot just continue to do the same increases again and again, then we would have prices of 100 million USD by 2025 or some insane stuff like that.
That is not very scientific but sensationalist, and we should remain realistic here, even if that means being more conservative. Conservative with 1.3 million in 2030 LOL.
Try telling that someone in the stockmarket hehehe!
Anyways, there is indeed the chance that BTC leaves this channel and creates a faster rising one, but the future datapoints are not here yet, so we must use
the past points for extrapolation.
But no matter what happens, I am convinced that BTC mainstream adoption WILL happen. It's not an "if" question, but a "when" question.
But then again, it might also surprise us, and indeed reach ATH in July. It all depends now on the growth dynamics of the next months.
But for some psychological reason, if Btc does start a bull run from around here, i am almost certain new comers and hodlers will target the million for this.
First a large correction from around the 180k$ to the 27k$.
Then another parabolic growth targetting the million, with everyone and his mother mining Satoshis on their phones with factory preinstalled Btc mining app.
Utopia never hurts nobody.
Hyperbitcoinization would be on its way.
What if your bottom doesn't come, but 3100 USD was indeed the bottom.
Sure, there could be a lower bottom still (even though the chances for that are declining very fast by the week). But you're willing to bet on that?
That is extremely risky!
It's weird that I have to agree with our favorite troll Bearfuck this time. But just invest a small portion and cost-average buy every week a bit of btc, for at least a few months.
This way, you'll win either way.
(when I kept saying that we were probably doing an A-B-C-correction and everyone was screaming: "To the Moon!")
But for me they are not pessimistic, but realistic.
Why should you buy Bitcoin on the neck line of a H&S pattern
only not to miss out the infinitesimal chance that it suddenly rises to 120k from there? ;-)
Common sense tells me it won't. What's more, common sense tells me that it will fall from there.
So at the moment I just don't see a reasonable setup for a trade on BTC that would be worth it.
Of course I can be wrong with that. But I do not force my view of things on anyone. Just sharing my thoughts. ;-) Good luck out there.
So then what is your strategy to make nice gains in this market? Waiting for your potential ABC low in a few months or whenever?
What if BTC ignores it, and BTC sometimes like to completely ignore TA by the way.
Then you will miss out, just because you had a certain view.
I on the other hand have bought into altcoins the moment BTC went over the MA200.
Should it really do another low as you hope, I can just buy more.
However, if it does a rally sooner than expected, then I make nice gains.
You on the other hand, will completely miss out if BTC makes new highs in 2020. And that would be sad. And we are all here because we want to make money, right?
But ok, you can of course do whatever you want hehe. I just wanted to give you friendly advice :)
In the meantime, I trade other more predictable equity markets and commodities.
I'm watching crypto closely, though, and as soon as I see something, I'll certainly be back.
Just for the record: If I had any Bitcoins I would sell them as soon as price falls below the daily MA38 and I would certainly not buy any more at the moment. This may change depending on the market situation, as I said. But right now that's what it is. ;-)