BTC: The historical Elliott waves (better drawn version)
Recently I published a chart, that was admittedly not drawn too nicely. I didn't have enough coffee, ok?! This time I learned my lesson, and fueled up with a good dosage of
caffeine before starting to draw some lines and curves, hehe :)
Anyways, I would want to talk about the complete Elliott wave picture of BTC since it started trading back in 2010 at Mt.Gox.
We can see that we have a classical 5 wave EW style progression.
This recent bullrun that we are experiencing now, puzzled me a lot until a few days ago, where it dawned to me that it is only an extension move of the 20k top in 2017.
Very similar to the 1200 ATH in late 2013 being only the second part of the April 2013 rally, and that it is a double peak kind of rally like back then, which we are experienceing right now.
So in order for the factors to make any sense, it would be really weird if the top of wave 5, starting at the famous bearwhale low (it was spectacular this guy sold 30k BTC at the lowest low, rofl) of 160 USD in 2015,
would have been 20k.
That would not fit the other growth factors, which are both around x500. See Elshanti's charts for that, he explained it quite perfectly.
So we have twice x500 (2010-2011 growth), then another x500 (2012 to 2013 growth) and now only around x100?
Nahhh...BTC isn't satisfied with such laughable growth. Only x100, BTC would feel embarrassed. That's almost pathetic wallstreet type of gains, BTC is thinking,
and of course wants to do another x500.
So 160 x500 would yield exactly 80k.
The curved resistance line, dating back to the peaks of 32USD in 2011 and 1150 USD in 2013, would also indicate that the wave 5 ATH is at 60-80k. (45k worst case, 100k best case).
Then after hitting that high, we'd get an ABC type of correction move from say 80k down to 8k. A brutal x10 decline, with the low being reached 2 years later.
And it would then take until 2024, so a full 5 years, to reach ATH level again. (The bearmarkets get longer everytime. 6 months in 2011, 2 years in 2014/15)
I think now that more people know about the halving, it is being priced in before the event itself.
The next halving therefore becomes a "sell the news" type of event. Credit to alanmasters for confirming this view also, in a discussion yesterday.
We would then see new highs after 2024 and the start of the second big historical Elliott wave, probably culminating at 1 million USD in 2030 plusminus.
So there you go, this is my complete EW view of BTC.
This view would get invalidated if BTC now breaks below 6k (a scenario that I deem unlikely, but as we know BTC, not impossible).
caffeine before starting to draw some lines and curves, hehe :)
Anyways, I would want to talk about the complete Elliott wave picture of BTC since it started trading back in 2010 at Mt.Gox.
We can see that we have a classical 5 wave EW style progression.
This recent bullrun that we are experiencing now, puzzled me a lot until a few days ago, where it dawned to me that it is only an extension move of the 20k top in 2017.
Very similar to the 1200 ATH in late 2013 being only the second part of the April 2013 rally, and that it is a double peak kind of rally like back then, which we are experienceing right now.
So in order for the factors to make any sense, it would be really weird if the top of wave 5, starting at the famous bearwhale low (it was spectacular this guy sold 30k BTC at the lowest low, rofl) of 160 USD in 2015,
would have been 20k.
That would not fit the other growth factors, which are both around x500. See Elshanti's charts for that, he explained it quite perfectly.
So we have twice x500 (2010-2011 growth), then another x500 (2012 to 2013 growth) and now only around x100?
Nahhh...BTC isn't satisfied with such laughable growth. Only x100, BTC would feel embarrassed. That's almost pathetic wallstreet type of gains, BTC is thinking,
and of course wants to do another x500.
So 160 x500 would yield exactly 80k.
The curved resistance line, dating back to the peaks of 32USD in 2011 and 1150 USD in 2013, would also indicate that the wave 5 ATH is at 60-80k. (45k worst case, 100k best case).
Then after hitting that high, we'd get an ABC type of correction move from say 80k down to 8k. A brutal x10 decline, with the low being reached 2 years later.
And it would then take until 2024, so a full 5 years, to reach ATH level again. (The bearmarkets get longer everytime. 6 months in 2011, 2 years in 2014/15)
I think now that more people know about the halving, it is being priced in before the event itself.
The next halving therefore becomes a "sell the news" type of event. Credit to alanmasters for confirming this view also, in a discussion yesterday.
We would then see new highs after 2024 and the start of the second big historical Elliott wave, probably culminating at 1 million USD in 2030 plusminus.
So there you go, this is my complete EW view of BTC.
This view would get invalidated if BTC now breaks below 6k (a scenario that I deem unlikely, but as we know BTC, not impossible).