I still don't expect BTC to break the bull cycle parameters we have spoke about in earlier posts. We are about to start Wave 3 which should be green monthly increases in price for 5 to 6 months.
The 'ribbon' type look of all the moving averages is still in place. As you can see the 8 is above the 21, 21 above the 34, 34 above the 55, 55 above the 89, 89 above the 121. I changed my and MA's to be in line with the Fibonacci Sequence.
It doesn't look like the gap at around 9.7k will be filled. Only chance would be within the next 7 days in my opinion.
On the weekly chart we can see BTC has moved up from it's opening price on Oct 1. BTC held the weekly MA 21 which is an important indicator to show the bull run is still going.
BTC broke through the large red line from the 20k top to late July.
The large yellow line and the time range going into the future are my prediction on price, momentum and time frame to the next ATH . I doubt it will be anything close, but hey I'll throw my hat in the ring.
On the monthly log chart we can see that BTC is holding above the 10 (in blue) as per our theory mentioned in previous posts.
On the daily log chart below we can see the LMACD crossed over as we mentioned and is now about to go above 0.
As we mentioned in last post, it was a great time to buy in at that point BTC flirted with the MA 121.
BTC is about to break the lime green line and move further upwards.
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BTC has done what I said it will do and go green each month from closing price to closing price. If my calculations are correct, there is still 2 more months of positive growth. Last closing price was 28963.70 so if BTC is above this by close at end of January then my analysis is still in play. That leaves a lot of room to drop should BTC decide to move further down.
On this 4 hour chart you can see that BTC is currently testing the ichimoku cloud and should it reject here we could see another leg down in terms of BTC's price.
On this daily chart you can see that BTC may replicate the similar pattern to that in the yellow boxes on the chart. The yellow box was at the 1.618 fib level and now this similar looking rejection is at the 3.618 fib level.
On this daily chart you can see that BTC is following the green median line on the Bollinger Bands and needs to maintain this to maintain the bullish momentum.
On this weekly log chart you can see the fib levels BTC is reacting to. BTC is trying to get above the 3.618 fib level. On the RSI you can see the importance of the horizontal lines shown as support and resistance levels.
So, BTC as usual has 2 paths, up and down. If BTC can break above this 3.618 fib level we should see 43500 then 49000 USD. If it rejects here and the current pattern on the daily chart is actually an ABC correction pattern then BTC should drop to 30k and bounce off there. This would coincide with the 4hr MA 200 and the daily EMA 34. If the daily candle closes below the 3 fib level @ $33611 USD then the bearish scenario comes into play.
Just remember BTC has room to drop and still stay in the green for this month. If it doesn't stay above last month's closing price then the next month will also be bearish but personally I am leaning more towards the bullish scenario depending on all the above parameters.
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