MrRenev
Short

US left/right tensions rise. Trade war tensions rise.

TVC:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
"China State Run Media Broadcasts Anti-American Movies To Millions Amid Deepening Trade War"

That's today headlines.

Larry Kudlow, Trump market expert that has the job of helping him make sure the stock market goes up, is exhausted constently sollicited by Donal Trump, and even had a heart attack. He wants to leave.
“I NEED YOU HERE FOR THE MARKETS”.

Interest rates at their lowest. Months of announcing "good hopes" in the "trade war" (US China exports is all that mattered the last year).
But these good hopes went down the drain last week as the POTUS announced heavy tariffs on china and gullible investors realized they got fooled.
Some had some hopes left, but clearly it has been confirmed things are going badly - unless China is short selling S&P futures who knows at that point?

They don't know what more to do to pump already extremely overextended markets.

- Very little inflation
- Interest rates low
- Bonds at the same time pay more (bubble btw)
- Full employment
- Huge debt & deficit

We have also the war between the far left & far right escalating.
The left in angry about some abortion law that has been voted in a state.
The right does not care anymore about PC and are less and less "polite" as time goes on.

It can't be too long before it all crashes like a big meteor.

Verdict for the next 5 years:
- Dollar goes up. Best to sit in cash / fixed rate while the meteor hits the ground and we can buy twice as much.
- Stocks crash, indices fall at least by 50%.
- Gold might go up, maybe not immediately. Might make a new bubble BUT the market cap now is much larger than in 1999 when it bottomed and the bubble started.
- Bonds as safety (not much growth but no decline).
- Bitcoin & other ponzi schemes go through their first recession, most of them go to zero. Bitcoin gets very close to zero. Probably stays there.

It could take more than 5 yrs, but I really do not think the situation can be maintained for longer than that. Even 2 years is a stretch.

The question is where are we, at what stage?
Comment: I wish the FED good look in their endeavor.



Shiller PE Ratio still at 1929 levels, below 2000 but 2000 was full of "growth" tech stocks so that doesn't count I guess.

Going to make a price to earnings calculator.

"Willy bot was built to stabilize the market"
- Mark Karpelès, master troll.
still another rally with Trump. there will be a selloff this year but by 2022 2023 will be peak. 2024 market crash will be blamed on republicans and than its a long bear market as extreme politics take over from left.
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This is a great post. About ten days ago we posted a $VIX LONG for this exact reason. That said it went up 100% in a few days and we posted to close it at once. THe $VIX trade is a great trade but can blow up in your face if not careful. @dRends35
+1 Reply
dRends35 london55555
@london55555, Thanks both
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