TradingShot
Long

BITCOIN Timing the top of the current Bull Cycle

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
This is a long term study on Bitcoin's historic logarithmic chart. My goal is to time the next market top/ All Time High ( ATH ) using one simple factor: the progression of each Bull Cycle.

I define a Bull Cycle from the lowest value of the previous Bear Cycle until the next peak/ ATH . We therefore have the following Cycles:

* 1st Bull Cycle = November 2011 - November 2013
* 2nd Bull Cycle = January 2015 - December 2017
* 3rd Bull Cycle = December 2018 - TBD

The 2nd Bull Cycle has been 1.43 times the 1st. Assuming this arithmetic progression holds, then the 3rd Bull Cycle should be roughly 1500 days in duration (2nd BC 1060 days x 1.43). This times the next ATH roughly around January 2023! This actually means that currently we are not even halfway there!

An interesting addition on this study that I want to make is the LMACD. This clearly shows that the 0.10 - 0.15 Fibonacci retracement level works well as a Buy Zone on each market Cycle. However the peaks are decreasing (Lower Highs) indicating that on the long run each Cycle is extended (which so far fits my current model described above) and Bitcoin's volatility over time gets harmonized. The next peak ( ATH ) according to the LMACD model should be near the 0.68 Fibonacci retracement level.

I hope you enjoyed this short study. When do you think the peak of the current Bull Cycle will be? Let me know in the comments section!

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Comments

Top: 60k
Time: August
Start: Mid Feb.
+4 Reply
@RQ, like you know. hahaha
+1 Reply
@RQ, either you 'agreed' with your own comment or someone is extremely gullible!
Reply
@RQ, I see the 50MA crossing the 200MA in around 8 - 14 days, in which we will likely see a 11500 BTC in the short term, 20K BTC by the end of Feb
Reply
kardia PhantomU
@PhantomU, I see moving averages as lagging, and therefore, deceptive and unreliable.
Reply
PhantomU kardia
@kardia, I see your point! I'm still relatively new to trading, so I like to bounce ideas off people and weigh them against my own charting.
Reply
I do agree with a lot, but.. I don't believe next cycle is going to be 1.43x. Usually first and fifth wave up are pretty similar in relative size and time, so I would argue this cycle is going to be faster than the third up we enjoyed 2017.
+4 Reply
bnqview bnqview
@bnqview, With that said, I mean we are hitting the top in about a year and a few months time
+2 Reply
@bnqview, I highly doubt it but a chart here would help.
+1 Reply
Nice one, take a look at what we did have before every mini bull run
+3 Reply
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