XForceGlobal

Bitcoin: A Long Term Market Analysis - Full Market Cycle Outlook

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Here we dissect the past, current, and potential future growth of Bitcoin . I am uploading this chart because there seems to be an influx of charts predicting that Bitcoin is going straight to $100,000 by EOY, which is viable, but absolutely low in probability. This chart is showing a possible realistic case for Bitcoin , every phase of the way divided by each Bitcoin halving for an easier understanding of the cycles of Bitcoin . This also takes into consideration for support and resistance lines that is linear within the logarithmic chart.

The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now possibly entering its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity. Price maturity is shown in most stock models, meaning that markets do not move in straight lines. This chart also helps support the 'lengthening market cycle' theory, which is based on how fast growth of a stock is shown. Bitcoin cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to incredibly inflated prices that brings Bitcoin into uncharted territories.

As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are the Bitcoin halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally. As history has shown that with a lower supply, the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and now becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold . Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess, we can still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technicals, and overall market cycle theories.

Even the monthly chart can be seen as a minuscule timeframe and we have to take this day by day, timeframe by timeframe. We can most definitely see lower prices and from a longer perspective, anything below 100,000 USD is still considered a great buy for Bitcoin , as many will start to understand that Bitcoin is becoming an investment.

Trade Safe.
X Force

Comments

Hey since this bull run do you think we will see a retest possibly back at the 11.7k wish range ?
+5 Reply
nadavhurwitz Clocktivker
@Clocktivker,
I believe in the medium term (a few weeks to a couple of months) price might correct lower due to a Bearish Harmonic Pattern forming.
Also, on a 1 hour timeframe there is a MACD divergence which indicates a correction might be on its way.

You can see my analysis here:


In the long run I agree with @XForceGlobal. Its a great analysis and very interesting!
+1 Reply
XForceGlobal nadavhurwitz
@nadavhurwitz, great and quick to the point. I absolutely agree. On the shorter timeframes including the 4H, there is a bearish divergence. Interestingly enough, we are even seeing confirmed bearish divergences kn the monthly and weekly!
Reply
XForceGlobal Clocktivker
@Clocktivker, hey pamolly! Thanks for the question. I believe it as absolutely possible to even see lower levels, which is NOT a bad thing. Markets do not move in straight lines. With that being said, we can see some bearish evidence via lagging indicators which shows strong evidence of a pullback sooner or later!
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most excellent chart 👍
+4 Reply
XForceGlobal SeaSide420
@SeaSide420 wow thank you very much!
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nice work !
thanks for sharing
+4 Reply
XForceGlobal Helical_Trades
@Helical_Trades, No, thank YOU!
Reply
This is drawn and described perfectly! gj
+3 Reply
XForceGlobal TradesBySheriff
@TradesBySheriff that is very kind of you to say!! Thank you so much
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