I am more conservative on BTC normally and think we'll hit the ATH sometime in 2021, at around 100K, maybe 150K with luck.
It's better to be conservative imho, than to be overly optimistic and then be disappointed.
However, there is a slight chance, that BTC does something crazy, and this ultra bullish scenario would qualify as something like this for me.
I don't think it's very likely to occur, but we should never rule something out in BTC.
THis last bull move has been aggressive, and as it still doesn't show signs of slowing down, we can assume we'll certainly see 10k in this pump.
But what if, instead of large dumps, we'll get 2-3 months of sideways, so that all indicators can cool off from overbought to oversold again,
until the next pump starts from a very high level, say, 8k.
This could develop into a crazy double rally like in 2013. First hitting the curved red upper resistance line, and then in the next try, break through it, and create therefore
a new, aggressive exponential upper trend channel.
I would put the probability for this to below 10%, and 90% for the conservative 100k in 2021. But it's still fun to think about these possibilities.
Because in the end, BTC is like quantum mechanics: There are many possibilities that co-exist at the same time, a superposition of states if you will.
And then, suddenly, BTC will decide for one of these many possibilities. But of course only if we look at the chart. Schrödingers Bitcoin so to speak :)
But which path will BTC take?
We shall find out in the coming months.
It's better to be conservative imho, than to be overly optimistic and then be disappointed.
However, there is a slight chance, that BTC does something crazy, and this ultra bullish scenario would qualify as something like this for me.
I don't think it's very likely to occur, but we should never rule something out in BTC.
THis last bull move has been aggressive, and as it still doesn't show signs of slowing down, we can assume we'll certainly see 10k in this pump.
But what if, instead of large dumps, we'll get 2-3 months of sideways, so that all indicators can cool off from overbought to oversold again,
until the next pump starts from a very high level, say, 8k.
This could develop into a crazy double rally like in 2013. First hitting the curved red upper resistance line, and then in the next try, break through it, and create therefore
a new, aggressive exponential upper trend channel.
I would put the probability for this to below 10%, and 90% for the conservative 100k in 2021. But it's still fun to think about these possibilities.
Because in the end, BTC is like quantum mechanics: There are many possibilities that co-exist at the same time, a superposition of states if you will.
And then, suddenly, BTC will decide for one of these many possibilities. But of course only if we look at the chart. Schrödingers Bitcoin so to speak :)
But which path will BTC take?
We shall find out in the coming months.
The next weekly candles will show the structure and we'll see what happens when the weekly RSI and stoch RSI cool off, which formation do the candles then have?
How well will the dump be absorbed?
If it only briefly touches the 5-6k area and rebounds strongly back to say 8k, that will be a very strong sign.
We shall see soon.