InvestingScope

Is Bitcoin still parabolic? Projections to consider.

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
With most bear cycle models showing that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom, it is useful to go back to its original growth pattern. The parabolic curve that has delivered High after High over this decade long time span.

Based on that parabolic pattern we have identified 4 possible growth scenarios leading to the next All Time High using duration and % increase parameters of each cycle.


Scenario (A): High around 53,300. Follows the 2012/2013 Bull Cycle.

This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2012/2013 bullish pattern . High to High measurement 882 days. High estimated for May 2020.


Scenario (B): High around 58,700. Follows the 2015/2017 Bull Cycle.

This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2015/2017 bullish pattern . High to High measurement 1492 days. High estimated for January 2022.


Scenario (C): High around 126,300.

This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +20 bars from the previous one. The June 2011 - November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 - December 2017 is measured at 49 bars. If the next High to High sequence follows this +20 bar pattern then the measurement will be at 69 bars i.e. 2100 days. High estimated for September 2023.


Scenario (D): High around 158,000.

This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +68.96% from the previous one. The June 2011 - November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 - December 2017 is measured at 49 bars, +68.96% of the 29 bars of the previous sequence. If the next High to High sequence follows this +68.96% pattern then the measurement will be at 82 bars i.e. 2496 days. High estimated for October 2024.


Based on a parameter similarity score, the Scenario that appears to be most probable is (B) as its High to High and Low to High measurements are identical to the cycle it immitates.

If you seek more insight on cycle comparisons and projections, see below how we have compared the current Bear Cycle to the 2014/2015 and 2011/2012.







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Keep going man. you're great
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Why is this obvious trend ignored in 99% of the analysis I read? Saying BTC will recover is much different than the reality of what is actually occuring to this coin....
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i love how everyone lists all these options, except that option that "it can stop going up indefinitely". still too much hopium.
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angula henry7696
@henry7696, lol. but that is what it did for the last 9 yrs
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Slippin' and a-slidin'
Peepin' and a-hidin'
Been told a long time ago
Baby, I've been told
Baby, you've been bold
I won't be your fool no more!
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I did just find something that has moved in a fairly standard parabolic curve on a log chart. Canada's TSX index going back some 25 years plus. So maybe BTC will follow a curve but it still seems very random.
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InvestingScope graham.edwards84
@graham.edwards84, Well spotted and thanks for sharing it. It has indeed and seems to have matured narrowing its bands.
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I'm curious why the price point should follow a parabolic curve on a logarithmic chart? There's no rule to suggest this is the case. In fact, look at some historical examples of equity price movements such as APPL or AMZN or even GE... they didn't follow a specific parabolic curve pattern on their logarithmic charts. What is your logic for predicting future price movements on historical patterns? Even comparing bubbles--and I'm also guilty of this--is really just a hopeful outlook isn't it?

Anyway, I do enjoy your posts and I do follow, so please don't get me wrong. I'm just not quite convinced about this parabolic theory of yours.
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InvestingScope graham.edwards84
@graham.edwards84, Nothing wrong taken and of course we don't imply that this parabolic outcome is 100% what is going to happen. It is just a technical projection based on the historical volatility at hand. If this pattern breaks (to the upside or downside, it doesn't matter) we will make new projections. But at the moment this is what BTC's price action provides us. Those who have been following this pattern at least from late 2013 onwards, definitely didn't miss out.
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