BTC Market Cycle | Repetitive and Predictable Market Cycle

BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
The Bitcoin market cycle can be easily predicted by studying historical data. Whenever you seek an idea of where the market is heading, you can always look at the past to gauge the future. However, this doesn't guarantee that the predictions stated here will unfold exactly as described; it's a PREDICTION, not a fact.

Let's examine the chart displayed here. The market cycle repeats itself every four years, with our chart divided into four cycles, the fourth being the current cycle we are in. Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a major event known as Halving, where the number of blocks containing Bitcoins is halved every four years. We started with 50 Bitcoins released in a block every 10 minutes; in 2012, that amount was reduced to 25 BTC. In the following cycle, it was halved again, and this will continue to happen every four years until all Bitcoins are mined. Currently, we are heading towards the fourth halving event, which will see the number of blocks released reduced to 3.125 BTC.

Due to this event, the price of Bitcoin appreciates in value every four years. This is driven by supply and demand, as fewer Bitcoins are mined than in the previous four years (reduced supply), creating scarcity and increasing demand. The mining difficulty also increases, causing miners to be reluctant to sell the Bitcoins they've mined, contributing to the price increase.

On our chart, we have three completed cycles that look almost identical. The cycles consist of a bull market where the price experiences a significant increase, followed by a bear market where the price drops in the range of 80–85%. This is followed by the first expansion, where we see a slight price increase, followed by the first accumulation phase. Prices move up and down within a specified range during this phase, also known as the consolidation phase. We then move on to the second expansion and the second accumulation, usually forming just before or within the halving period.

This not only shows us that the market cycles are similar but also allows us to predict future events. At the time of writing this, we are three months away from the fourth halving, and it appears we have entered the second accumulation phase, as seen in the past three cycles. Prices should trade in a specified range for a few months after the halving. When you examine the halving events on the chart, you can observe that we usually enter the bull run somewhere between 6 to 8 months after the halving. Based on that, we can predict that the next bull run will start between October and December 2024, lasting until the fourth quarter of 2025.

In the past, the cycles have been accurate, and we can expect the same unless a global catastrophic event occurs, as seen in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. In that phase, there was no second expansion as all markets crashed. It is my opinion that this led to the bull run not reaching its full potential. Had we experienced the second expansion, the price would have moved slightly higher before the second accumulation phase, leading to an extended bull run pushing the price near or above $100k.

My price prediction at the end of the cycle, assuming world events stay normal, is to see Bitcoin in the range of $120–150K.

What do you think the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2025 will be? Like, share, and feel free to leave a comment. Let me know if you agree or disagree with this analysis.

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