The time frames are very different, however the emphasis here is on a BTCUSD at the top of a disbelief rally from the bottom of the bear market after a 250% (3.5x) rise. The measured move back then was -20% that Bitcoin achieved. The -32% breakdown target after a 340% (4.4x) doesn't seem unreasonable.
Credit to KaliCrypto for the inspiration:
If Bitcoin Repeats History?
Part 1: Looking Similar To 2018
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Breakdown
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low