SebastianofMoon

Bitcoin BTC: Precise date and top calculation for this cycle

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
So I was thinking again, and it might be that my last idea here (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/sk...) was too simplified.

It seems the cycles are getting overproportionally longer.
Also, it seems that the tops are diminishing more than previously thought.

I take all cycles exactly from the previous halving days, except the very first cycle, starting day there is of course when BTC started trading on Mt.Gox in 2010.

I overlay exactly with the halving date 11th of May 2020.

We then calculate the ratios of the cycle lengths, and continue the trend. We thus get 956 days of length for this cycle, which would put the top to December 23rd, 2022. 1 year away.

We can do the same for the top ratios and find that if this trend was to continue, we would get 228k USD as the top.

So, I repeat: 228k on December 23rd 2022.

This is another possibility, a more conservative one than my last simpler one, where I arrived at around 300k by June 2022.

Maybe also, it will be somewhere in between, so 250k in October 2022 or something like that. I see both these scenarios as the boundaries of an interval range where it could end up being.

If the cycle will still be one year more to go, then it is possible that we could get a shakeout scenario as drawn in the red line, people should be prepared for such an event, it is entirely
possible because a lot can happen in one year. We remember that BTC dropped in early 2020 from 10500 to 3900 and then went into a rally to over 60k. Ok, this was a black swan event,
but we should be prepared that something similar might happen, because BTC likes shaking out people.

That is now my current picture. Should it change, I will post.
Comment: We can see that with this latest drop, the red path possibility has become more likely. We could indeed hit the lower band of the trend channel and still be bullish for the year !

So drop to 20-25k, and then still 200k+ by late December 2022, or early January 2023!

Kind of like this:
Comment: It seems that Bitcoin is forming some kind of running flat correction in an ascending trend channel:


Also, a nice hidden bullish divergence on the weekly.

If confirmed, this could lead us to new highs.