BITCOIN Don't lose sight of the bigger picture

I see a lot of discussions about how Bitcoin is too high, rising too fast and needs a correction or on the other side how this bullish wave can continue straight to new highs etc etc.

There is a lot of confusion and it is understandable as the short term charts always display BTC's high levels of volatility and the moves are too aggressive for low equity traders or weak hands.

It is useful at this point to look at where the price is on the long-term 1W chart using very simple indicators.

As you see during Bitcoin's Cycle 1 and 2, every time the price approached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, it made a temporary top and pulled back. However the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held and that initiated the Parabolic Phase of the Bull Market.

So far during the current Cycle (3), the price has tested the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, pulled back, but the 1W MA50 failed to support, so the price naturally didn't start a new bull sequence and instead dropped more (of course the COVID sell-off had a lot to do with it). This is postponing the parabola, but right now the price is making a new 0.786 test. If this time the 1W MA50 holds, then most likely the new Parabolic Phase of the Bull Market will start, just like it did on Cycles 1 and 2.

Do you agree with this simple but straightforward analysis? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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